Morning Call For February 27, 2015

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.11%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday fell back from a 2-week high and closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -14.00, FVH5 -9.25. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected +0.2% m/m increase in Jan core CPI, which may put the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctioned $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.261 (-0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0025 (+0.22%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.08 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Thursday rallied to a 1-month high and closed higher: Dollar index +1.079 (+1.15%), EUR/USD -0.01638 (-1.44%), USD/JPY +0.555 (+0.47%). Bullish factors included (1) the +0.2% m/m increase in U.S. Jan core CPI, stronger than expectations of +0.1%, which reduces deflation concerns and puts the Fed closer to raising interest rates, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-month low as the ECB will soon begin its QE program and start buying sovereign debt next month.

Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +1.43%) this morning is up +84 cents (+1.74%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.12%) is up +0.0181 (+0.95%) at a 2-1/2 month high. Apr crude and Apr gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLJ5 -2.82 (-5.53%), RBJ5 -0.0022 (-0.11%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-month high and (2) negative carry-over from Wednesday’s EIA data that showed an +8.4 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to a record 434.1 million bbl (EIA data since 1982) and a +2.4 million bbl increase in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, to a 1-1/2 year high of 48.68 million bbl.

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