NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 15: Traders wear "DOW 28,000" hats on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 15, 2019

(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) GETTY IMAGES

The better-than-expected Retail Sales data on Friday, combined with more bullish comments on a U.S.-China trade deal, moved stocks up out of their recent ranges to close at further new highs. However, comments from an administration official can quickly be refuted or even denied by the other side. I always find price action to be more important for forecasting than this week's news or the most recent economic data, as it represents real money, not hearsay.

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The Dow Jones Utility Average, which had been correcting from the September high, was the strongest market average last week, up 1.58%, followed by a 1.17% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P 500 was a bit stronger than the Nasdaq 100 for a change, while selling was concentrated in the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Dow TOM ASPRAY-VIPERREPORT.COM

The close above 28,000 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a clear breakout above the resistance (line a) and creates solid support now in the 27,600 area. Though this price action likely has longer-term bullish implications, it should be pointed out that two weeks after the 27,000 level was surpassed in July 2019, the Dow had a significant pullback.

The weekly Dow Industrials advance/decline line moved back above its Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on January 7, and surpassed the prior high (line b) in February, which was bullish for the intermediate term. Since then, the A/D line has held well above its rising EMA and the chart support (line c).

The Health Care Select (XLV) led the key sectors higher last week, gaining 2.33%. For those interested in healthcare, last week, I discussed the bullish technical action of health care sector ETF's and gave specific recommendations. The Real Estate Sector (XLRE) was up 2.04%, and the Utilities Sector Fund (XLU) was up 1.78%.,

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The Utilities Sector Fund (XLU) has just rebounded back to its 20-day EMA. A move above the former support, now resistance, at $63.11 would be positive, with next targets at the monthly pivot of $64.06. The decline from the September high at $65.11 dropped just below the 50% retracement support but held above the 61.8% Fibonacci support at $60.85, which is now substantial support.

The daily relative performance (RS) is still below its declining Weighted Moving Average (WMA). A move through the downtrend (line b) is needed to signal that XLU is leading the S&P 500. The daily On Balance Volume (OBV) has held the support (at line c), and moved back above its WMA which is a positive sign. The weekly OBV (not shown) has turned up from its weekly WMA which makes the close this week more important.

GLD TOM ASPRAY-VIPERREPORT.COM

The precious metals were hit hard two weeks ago after the FOMC action on rates and the rally in the U.S. Dollar. The Spyder Gold Trust (GLD) is down 2.96% so far this month after closing up 0.60% last week.

The correction from the high at $146.84 has lasted ten weeks and has taken GLD back to support from the July high (line a), as the low last week was $136.19. The weekly starc- band, and stronger support is at $132.25. Its weekly OBV has held above its rising WMA during the correction and turned up last week. This is a sign that there has not been selling during the decline. The daily OBV (not shown) is just below its WMA. A move above the 20-day EMA at $139.46 is likely needed to turn prices and the OBV positive.

As the earnings season draws to a close, most on Wall Street, though not convinced about the stock market rally, have been encouraged by the earnings. According to FactSet “the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS [earnings per share] above estimates (75%) is above the five-year average”.

Earlier this month, I wondered “What Will It Take To Turn Investors Bullish?” Apparently the rate cut, fewer trade-related Tweets from President Trump, and better-than-expected earnings have done the trick. According to the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), 40.7% of investors are now bullish, which is up from 21.37% the week of October 3. The bearish-% hit a high of 43.96% the week of October 10 and is now at 24.82%. As long as the advance/decline analysis stays positive, these levels are not consistent with a correction.

There are a number of stocks that are not close to all-time highs, and many offer quite good risk/reward opportunities. One opportunity, which I Tweeted about last week, was LogMein Inc. (LOGM). It was up over 16% last week to close at $81, after a low just four weeks ago of $61.73.