Moon Festival

Apologies to His Honor Mayor de Blasio. The computer outage yesterday was notbecause of the resurfacing of the streets leading to the former Queensborough, now Koch Bridge (named not for the right-wingers but for former mayor Ed.) I was wrong yesterday.

There was a flood in the basement of my building which took out the high-speed internet, but the old clunker desktop computer was able to function while the laptop went down. Sundays are a bad day for floods with reduced building staff. Making matters worse, we have an interim super not living on the premises, because the former one was sacked for corruption, trying to falsify a board election, and lying to a court about this. He refuses to leave the apartment which comes with the job.

To improve matters one might seek help from the moon, which tonight will be closest to earth according to Hindu astronomy. Since I live and work in a building overlooking the East River (actually an arm of the Atlantic Ocean), the flooding disaster may be because of high tide caused by the moon. Three weeks ago that we went out after supper to see the start of a lunar eclipse of the Harvest Moon which I wrote about here saying the moon matters.

In response to that blog, a Hindu reader sent me detailed instructions for how to celebrate Sharad Purnima tonight when the moon is closest to earth. To benefit from its divine rays, he advises heading outside after 9 pm to recite prayers to Hanuman (or at least think spiritual thoughts). Bring an offering of rice with milk, sugar, and dried fruits to Lakshmi and leave it overnight (covered with a transparent cover or a net to let the moonshine in and keep the bugs and mice out).

After midnight or tomorrow share it with family members. He remarks: “Non-Hindus have been known to also prosper after observing the rituals.”

Alas, I am doomed to monotheism. As a teenager I spent a weekend with the Chinese-American family of my classmate Ellen. Her Christian father went to pray in Chinatownon Sunday and returned with dim sum, the first time I ate them. Her Buddhist mother put offerings of fruit before a statue in the hall. My mother's reaction was classically Jewish: “idol-worship!”

I also dislike the rise of murderous Hindutva militancy in Narendra Modi's India. So I will not say a prayer to Hanuman the monkey god or Lakshmi the goddess of prosperity tonight.

A UK AIM stock, Globo (GOBPY) (GBO-LN, traded here as GOBPY) sells systems combining business mobile security with data management, has gone bust. Founded in 1997 and listed a decade later, it is one of the stocks we didn't buy. I also wound up not buying its product. However we did get caught by another AIM stock. You can't win em all.

After being hacked, TALK, the stock of the talktalk cellphone system I use to chat with my London sister-in-law, crashed on Monday. Off 12.3% it was the worst performer in London.

*Vedanta Ltd. (VEDL​) will report tomorrow after the close. VEDL rose yesterday in India trading.

*Apple reports today after the close. Maxim just raised its rating to buy from hold. We had a grudge against the brokerage for its cut price ipo for our Benitec Biotech. We are too scared to own AAPL but we do hold shares of a key supplier to its watch arm, Renishaw plc, RSW in Britain. (It also has a very inactive ADR.) If it rises enough I can afford an Apple Watch. However, yesterday UK chartists Investors Intelligence reiterated its short on RSW now at GBX1923.

Naspers News

*Alibaba (BABA), whose ipo we boycotted, also reports then. TH Capital has just raised it to buy from hold. Our Hong Kong-based China play is discussed next. Our new China correspondent Xing Cheng writes that TCTZF's partner JD.com is picking up business from consumers and vendors trading down from BABA's T-mall. We will know more as China's e-commerce sector reports. The odds are greatest that BP, VEDL, and Naspers(34% owner of Tencent) have staff observing Sharad Purnima.

South African media group Naspers (NPSNYis exiting Czech Republic and other eastern Europe, selling two subs that didn't work out for $200 mn, and investing the proceeds and more in Russia. In addition to mail.ru, a website where it owns 29%, it will take a controlling stake in Avito, a classified ads site taking its stake up 51% to 68% for $1.2 bn. This will replace a plan to ipo Avito, but its new controls and procedures put in place for this lured NPSNY in.Sellers include Sweden's Kinnevickwhich rose 5.5% on the news in Stockholm. Naspers which has grown through bold acquisitions like taking a 34% stake in Hong Kong's Tencent (TCTZF), now will be offering Russians looking for bargains a chance to buy second-hand furniture, appliances, and cars on-line. There a no plans to merge Avito with mail-ru. The Czech subs, Netretail BV and Heureka were bought by Rockaway Capital of San Francisco.

Harry Geisel comments: “They're disciplined investors, the reverse of how the market values cyber stocks... including NPSNY itself!. As a value investor I wouldn't put new money into any of the mega-p/e ratio companies but I believe Naspers is as good as it gets and will hold on. It has a great history and potential and has been 'overpriced' for decades.”

Our new China correspondent Xing Cheng writes that TCTZF's partner JD.com is picking up business from consumers and vendors trading down from BABA's T-mall. We will know more as China's e-commerce sector reports more.

Israeli Shares

*Teva (TEVAis lagging because of the hefty $7 bn it will have to raise to buy Allergen. Israelis fear their shares will be watered down by new stock. However its average target price from US analysts (most of whom rate it buy or strong buy) is $82; it is under $59 now. It will host a conference call Oct. 29.

*However, Delek Group (DGRLY), while also borrowing much money, is viewed more positively because of the latest likely Israeli cabinet reshuffle by the one-vote majority Netanyahu government. Now the Minister of the Economy, religious party leader Aryeh Deri, said he is prepared to leave the government to allow Delek to develop its offshore Leviathan gas field after it won security cabinet approvals. Deri gave up on seeking goodies for ultra-Orthodox Israelis who evade the draft and demand huge subsidies before he would name a new permanent anti-trust administrator (where the problems arose last year). He was firmly opposed and PM Netanyahu threatened a cabinet reshuffle to stop Deri. While DGRLY also faces financing needs, its getting a political green light is viewed as more significant by Tel Aviv shareholders. Its stock rose 3.8% Sunday, up for a 4th day in Tel Aviv.

European Shares

*GlaxoSmithKline (GSKis recommended by Jonathan Buck in yesterday's Barron's because analysts expect it can deliver earnings growth at 9% over the next 5 years despite the patent cliff. This they attributes to a pipeline of new products the market is not paying attention to. Now

Sky News reports that UK Woodford Patient Capital Trust biotech fund manager Neil Woodford called for a breakup of GSK so he can focus investments on its vaccines arm and the HIV controlled sub Viiv, which CEO Sir Andrew Witty reversed course on and decided to keep. Woodford wants to exit the troubled respiratory franchise and the low margin OTC drug business. Interestingly, his new fund after he left Invesco put a lot of money into GSK. Now we know why.

A generic of blockbuster Advair, which accounts for 20% of sales and lost patent protection 5 years ago, can hit the market as soon as next year, he argues. So far there are no FDA applications for a copycat. And Buck quotes Goldman Sachs as saying that Advair can keep up to a quarter of the US market against generics thanks to its delivery system.

Goldman Sachs put a GBX 1800 target price on GSK which works out to $55.58 at yesterday's cable rate. On Nov. 3 Witty will present the pipeline in an R&D conference at the Marriott Essex House near here which I will attend. Meanwhile we get a nifty 5.5% yield and a possible 30% capital gain.

*Royal Bank of Scotland is putting all its staff on “facebook at work”, a social media site.

*Mexico has approved the takeover by Finnish Nokia of France's Alcatel Lucent. Now it can go ahead.

*Tomra Systems (TMRAFof Norway, maker of reverse vending machines for giving back glass and plastic empties for recycling, and other sensor-based multi tech sorting systems for pharma, mining, food like rice, seeds, kernals, fruits and veggies, dried fruits and nuts, meat, shellfish, and potatoes unpeeled to French fries and chips. It most recently added cigarette sorting. Its garbage sorting systems extract plastics, wood, paper and cardboard, metal and rubber that can be recycled. My local Whole Foods Market has a Tomra automatic container refund machine.

TMRAF is up sharply, on no news except an investor presentation last week focused on how ethical and good it is for the environment (without talking too much about sorting ciggies.) It is at a new high in Norwegian Kroner for the year. It will report on Q3 next month. Over the past two years suffering from Norway's high currency and the global slowdown, while sales have risen, before tax earnings and EPS have fallen below 2012 levels. In H1 they improved. I suspect Q3 is going to boost earnings some more. US shareholders, including institutions and us, own about 9% of the stock but 62% of the stock is owned in Scandinavia, over half by institutions.

*Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) (of Italy via Luxembourg) reports before the opening Oct. 28(Weds.) Its US sales have risen 6% YTD and its positive earnings growth in the last 4 quarters came to a cumulative 7.4%. Possible bad news include from recalls and warranty issues which came up during the summer. Good news from its settling with the United Auto Workers ahead of rivals GM and Ford. Both have more senior workers getting a better pay package than new hires than FCAU. Zacks thinks there may be an upward earnings surprise.

*SAP (SAP) of Germany was tipped by “The Investment Doctor”, TIE, an anonymous contributor to seekingalpha.com who noted that the company had successfully launched its “cloud” based systems which boosted cash flow and allowed it to cut capital spending. The writer admitted “I missed the chance to pick up SAP before it took off.” We took the chance. He now is buying on the hope of a 30% increase in profits over the next two years, quoting an anonymous analyst. The writer predicts that because capex has fallen below the depreciation rate, free cash flow should hit euros 5 bn by the end of 2018. We don't need that to make money from SAP which because of its business is a euro-denominated earner of dollars. I am delighted we are in this German Vorsprung durch Technik stock rather than in Volkswagen or Deutsche Bank although if someone were to have delivered euros 5 bn to my account from the Frankfurt Grossbank I might have kept it.

Commonwealth News

*Australian Benitec Biopharma (BNTC) was boosted as an alternative to CRISPR technology for editing genes in last week's The Economist, the first time since I stopped writing for the magazine that I found a stock tip for a share I own there. CRISPR Technologies of Cambridge MA did a $105 mn deal with Vertex to do work on cystic fibrosis for VRTX on the F508 del mutation it already addresses. (Our Belgian Galapagos also is working on the same mutation.)

BNTC hired Maxim Brokers to do its underpriced ipo which got derailed after the lead underwriter-designant, Bank of Montreal, lost its bio analyst after the ipo was in mid-stream. Rather than pulling the issue, the Australian firm hired Maxim which not only slashed the price but also nabbed el cheapo warrants to buy BNTC stock at bargain prices. Last week the BNTCW warrants were the sharpest rising ADRs according to BoNY-Mellon, on almost no volume all sold by Maxim.

*The AIM stock we owned also bankrupt is China Chaintek, CTEK-AIM. It was listed in London but incorporated in the Caribbean and operated in China.

Fund Notes

*When Valeant told the world that its accounts are “appropriate” but that it would set up an internal review committee to look at its arrangements for Philidor, the shares fell in German trading before the 8 am conference call. I did not attend, because we leave that stuff to fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Holdings (PSHZF), PSH, listed in Amsterdam, who has more at stake than we do.

*Another one I gave a miss to, Aberdeen Asset Mgm of Edinburgh, which manages several US closed-end funds we like, is suffering because it specializes in emerging markets, when they are viewed as poison. Fund investors are racing for the exits and Aberdeen stock lost 25% of its value in the last half year. The US arm of the group was always lavish with pay, premises, and press parties for Scottish holiday events like Robert Burns nights which I attended. All were cut back this year as money fled the group and managers ditto. Now the news is that Aberdeen itself is on the bloc for sale to a bank or fund manager, probably American. We own Aberdeen Global Income Fund, FCO.

*Pimco is going to switch its “incentives” for managers to reflect their performance rather than paying them a proportion of profits, a cause of two lawsuits against the California fund group owned by our Allianz. One was brought by former movie-star bond manager Bill Gross over his share of the bonus pool, and the other by disgruntled investors. While investors will gain from a less generous bonus policy so too will our parent, AZSEY of Germany, an insurance group.

(*Zurich Insurance was downrated by analysts at Barclays Bank from overweight to neutral. We think ZURVY is a way to offset the specific Pimco risks at AZSEY.)

Separately, we own low-bonus closed-end fund Pimco Dynamic Income, PDI. It doesn't publish its NAV weekly with other funds, presumably to pay more into the bonus pool.

*Phil Goldstein, a board member, appears to have sold out of Mexico Equity & Income Fund, MXE, in order to place the money in a Legg Mason Real Estate Income Fund, RIT. As noted MXE insiders have been buying but they don't have US dollars or Goldstein's following.

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.