Monthly Forecast – March Madness

We’re going to tell you about the financial events to watch out for in March to help you prepare your trading calendar.

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Week 1

US/NFP Report

This Friday we have the NFP report on new jobs added in the US for the month of February. Last month’s data came in well below the expected number, however, unemployment was at multi-year lows pointing to a more optimistic picture
Some analysts are forecasting 205 thousand new jobs, so a weaker result is likely to put pressure on the dollar, which in turn may affect rate hikes by the Fed – but more on that later.
On the flipside, March has beat expectations for the last 3 years.

Week 2

China

The 2nd week of March holds a few major market events to watch for.
On 8 March, China releases its February trade numbers. While expectations are low – the question will be, how low?
Chinese stocks are already down 17% in the first 2 months of the year, more negative numbers will surely add more pressure and worries of further Yuan devaluation from Beijing.

Europe/ECB

Later that week, the ECB will release a very important interest rate decision.
We’ve had hints of more quantitative easing if growth continues to stagnate.
We’ll be watching to see how this will affect the EUR/USD which has been trading much better than its fundamentals for most of 2016.

Week 3

China

If you thought you could relax over the weekend, think again. Week 3 of March might create anxiety before it even begins.
China will release retail sales and industrial production data over the weekend. Once again, any additional weakness in China’s economy might create instability for mainland stocks. As we’ve seen so often this year, that instability may quickly spread worldwide.
For those of you in North America, be sure to set your clocks ahead by one hour on Sunday, 13 March. Daylight Savings Time officially begins!

US/Fed

On 16 March we’ll see one of the biggest market-moving events for the month – the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
If the Fed says NO to a rate rise, we may see an immediate hit for the US dollar and an immediate rise for gold and stocks.
Expectations are that we won’t see another rate hike due to volatility in the markets. But be prepared as any surprises may set the markets rocking.

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