(Click on image to enlarge)

As we start a new trading week, risk sentiment is mixed across the primary US indices at the time of writing, with one flavor of each! The YM Emini is firmly higher, the NQ is strongly lower and the ES Emini is in congestion in terms of the day so far, with the yen complex currently aligned to the YM in terms of risk sentiment.

If we focus on the daily chart for the YM Emini, last week’s plunge has now been consigned to history with the V-shaped rally now taking the index back towards 35,000 and beyond. However, it is not a rosy picture entirely when we consider the associated volume of the last few days which is falling in a rising market. A sign of potential weakness and an anomaly from a volume price analysis perspective.

Moreover, note the candles of Wednesday and Thursday last week. On Wednesday the price action is wide on good volume which is fine, but then on Thursday, the spread is even wider, yet on lower volume as we hit the VPOC at 34,650. This in itself is anomalous, and if you have read any of my previous posts on benchmarking then you will know why and it will be interesting to see how today’s volume and price action closes on the session as the index attempts to break away from the volume point of control denoted with the yellow dashed line. Whether we see price contained in this region which is what we can expect given the presence of the VPOC or an advance towards 35,400, in both cases, we are likely to see congestion, either in a broad or narrow range over the next few days.