Metals and Miners continue to consolidate. Prices move pointedly one day and then reverse the next. There is little to no follow-through in either direction, and that makes trading difficult.

Gold and silver are near critical support. They are holding these levels, but a sharp decline remains possible. If we are going to see a breakdown, it should occur within the next few trading days.

The same analysis applies to stocks and oil. I see the potential for sharp declines, but this window is closing.

There were decent buying on weakness numbers in GDX today (163-Million).

US Dollar - Prices tested the 95.80 level again and reversed sharply. The dollar needs to close above this level to signal the next advance. If prices pullback here, they need to maintain closes above the 94.25 level to prevent a failed daily cycle.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold - Prices are flirting with critical support at $1184. If we are going to see a breakdown, it should occur between now and Friday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Silver - Prices continue to probe the cycle trendline, no breakdown yet. If we do see a sudden collapse, it will likely slash through the $13.97 low. The next few days are crucial.

(Click on image to enlarge)

GDX - An uneventful day in miners. Prices would have to close above yesterday’s high ($18.90) to support more upside and today’s buying on weakness. However, significant resistance remains near the $19.75 gap. Closing below the $18.14 pivot would likely trigger another sharp sell-off.

(Click on image to enlarge)

GDXJ - Juniors are in the same boat as GDX.

(Click on image to enlarge)

SPY - Stocks finished the day with a small Doji cross. It feels like we are at an inflection point. If this thing is going to break sharply lower, it needs to do so soon. I’ll exit the remaining 50% of my TVIX position if prices aren’t heading lower tomorrow or Thursday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Recession Indicators -  I track many things to forecast trends and the next bear market in stocks. One of them is the Oil/Stocks ratio. Towards the end of a business cycle, oil prices increase relative to stock prices. When the weekly RSI (14) exceeds 80, a recession and stock bear market becomes likely. The RSI is currently at 58; it probably won’t exceed 80 until sometime next year.

(Click on image to enlarge)

WTIC - Oil bounced off the 10-day EMA. Sometimes we will see a 1-3 day bounce off the 10-day before a sharp cycle decline. If that’s the case this time, then prices should bounce to the $75.50 – $76.50 level and reverse lower between now and Friday. If established, I’d look for a correction to the support box. I may try shorting again if we get a reasonable setup.

(Click on image to enlarge)