May 2018 Producer Price Final Demand Year-Over-Year Inflation Grew
The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation increased from 2.6 % to 3.1 %.
Analyst Opinion of Producer Prices
The Producer Price Index rose year-over-year. Food prices did moderate. Here is what the BLS said in part:
In May, 60 percent of the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 1.0-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in May, the same as in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 2.6 percent.
The PPI represents inflation pressure (or lack thereof) that migrates into consumer price.
The market had been expecting (from Bloomberg):
| month over month change | Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual |
| PPI-Final Demand (PPI-FD) | 0.1 % to 0.5 % | +0.3 % | +0.5 % |
| PPI-FD less food & energy (core PPI) | 0.1 % to 0.3 % | +0.2 % | +0.3 % |
| PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services | 0.2 % to 0.3 % | +0.2 % | +0.1 % |
The producer price inflation breakdown:
| category | month-over-month change | year-over-year change |
| final demand goods | +0.1 % | |
| final demand services | +0.3 % | |
| total final demand | +0.5 % | +3.1 % |
| processed goods for intermediate demand | +1.5 % | +6.3 % |
| unprocessed goods for intermediate demand | +2.5 % | +6.8 % |
| services for intermediate demand | +0.3 % | +3.3 % |
(Click on image to enlarge)
z ppi1.png
In the following graph, one can see the relationship between the year-over-year change in intermediate goods index and finished goods index. When the crude goods growth falls under finish goods - it usually drags finished goods lower.
Percent Change Year-over-Year - Comparing PPI Finished Goods (blue line) to PPI Intermediate Goods (red line)
(Click on image to enlarge)
Econintersect has shown how pricing change moves from the PPI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Comparing Year-over-Year Change Between the PPI Finished Goods Index (blue line) and the CPI-U (red line)
(Click on image to enlarge)
The price moderation of the PPI began in September 2011 when the year-over-year inflation was 7.0%.
Caveats on the Use of Producer Price Index
Econintersect has performed several tests on this series and finds it fairly representative of price changes (inflation). However, the headline rate is an average - and for an individual good or commodity, this series provides many sub-indices for specific application.
A very good primer on the Producer Price Index nuances can be found here.
Because of the nuances in determining the month-over-month index values, the year-over-year or annual change in the PPI index is preferred for comparisons.
There is moderate correlation between crude goods and finished goods. Higher crude material prices push the finished goods prices up.
Disclosure: None.
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