E Markets: Retrenchment

  • EUR: 1.1330 off 1.1% on the week with 1.13-1.15 still holding but ECB views and growth doubts clash with 1.1180 risk.
  • JPY: 109.75 up 0.25% on the week despite weaker equities, rates spread to US wins with 108.70-110.20 big picture holding. EUR/JPY 124.25 off 0.95% with 125.50 cap for 122.50 risk again. 
  • GBP: 1.2945 off 1.05% on the week– tracking EUR with Brexit still the shadow, BOE policy shift key with 1.28-1.3050 focus. EUR/GBP .8745 off 0.1%. 
  • CHF: 1.000 up 0.45% on the week– safe haven meets SNB with EUR/CHF 1.1325 off 0.7% and 1.1280-1.1450 keys – 1.00 USD pivot still. 
    AUD: .7090 off 2.2% on the week with RBA surprise driving .7050 still important. NZD .6745 off 2.2% - tracks A$ with China fears next. 
    CAD: 1.3275 up 1.35% on the week– despite better jobs, it’s about rates, oil and politics with 1.3050 base for 1.34 still. 

Commodities: The S&P/GSCI total return index fell 1.63% to 2,394.56 on the week. Another great week for Palladium, with copper not far behind. Iron the leader with Vale mess driving supply concerns. NatGas led the losses off 5.5% with oil and platinum weakness not from behind it. 

  • Oil: $52.72 off 4.6% on the week(March futures) with OPEC/Russia deal and Venezuela not enough to keep global gloom and US inventory build driving with $52 the WTI pivot for $50 retests. Brent $62.10 off 1.04% (April) does slightly better as spread drives on trade stories. 
  • Gold: $1314 off 0.3% on the week. (Futures April $1318.50). Focus is on $1305-$1320 with USD gains driving. Silver $15.823 off 0.55% on the week with $15.50-$16.00 keys. Platinum off 2.9% to $798 on the week. Palladium up 3.8% to $1402.
  • Corn: $374.25 off 1.05% on the week(Mar). USDA released all the pent up reports from the shutdown Friday with mixed stories and China still the key big picture fear – Swine flu there hurts Soybeans here. Wheat off 1.35% to $517.25 (Mar) and Soybeans off 0.35% to $914.50 (Mar). 
  • Copper: $2.8170 up 2% on the week with March futures $2.8095 up 1.25%. Iron ore jump 9% to  $92 (62% fe China) up on Brazil Vale disruption, trade stock piling, thin volume. 

Calendar for the Week Ahead: RBNZ and Riksbank, 4Q GDP for Japan, Germany, UK. China PPI/CPI, M2 and Trade, US CPI/PPI, retail sales, industrial production, Michigan sentiment – OPEC monthly, US government shutdown deadline.

Monday, February 11: UK industrial production, 4Q GDP revised

  • 0300 am China Jan FX Reserves $3.07trn p $3.079trn e
  • 0330 am Sweden Dec industrial production -0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y p
  • 0430 am UK 4Q preliminary GDP (q/q) 0.6%p 0.2%e (y/y) 1.5%p 1.4%e
  • 0430 am UK Dec industrial production (m/m) -0.4%p +0.2%e (y/y) -1.5%p -0.4%e / manufacturing -1.1%p -1.1%e / construction 3%p 1.5%e
  • 1100 am US Jan consumer inflation expectations 3%p 3%e
  • 1115 am Fed Bowman speech
  • 1130 am US sells 3M and 6M bills

Tuesday, February 12: China auto sales, US NFIB, India inflation, Fed speaker.

  • 0730 pm Australia Jan NAB business confidence 3p 3e
  • 0730 pm Australia Dec home loans (m/m) -0.9%p -2%e 
  • 0345 am China Jan auto sales (y/y) -13%p
  • 0440 am Spain 6M-12M Letras sale
  • 0545 am Italy 12M BOT sale
  • 0600 am US Jan NFIB small business optimism 104.4p 103.2e
  • 0700 am India Dec industrial production (y/y) 0.5%p 2%e / manufacturing -0.4%p +4%e
  • 0700 am India Jan inflation rate (y/y) 2.19%p 2.48%e
  • 1000 am US Dec JOLTS job openings 6.888m p 6.96m e
  • 1245 pm FOMC Chair Powell speech
  • 0430 pm US weekly API oil inventory 2.514mb p 1mb e
  • 0530 pm Kansas City Fed George Speech
  • 0630 pm Cleveland Fed Mester Speech

Wednesday, February 13: OPEC and IEA oil monthly report, Riksbank rate decision, UK PPI/CPI, US CPI

  • 0350 pm RBA Heath speech
  • 0600 pm Korea Jan unemployment 3.8%p 3.9%e
  • 0630 pm Australia Feb Westpac consumer confidence 99.6p 99.2e
  • 0650 pm Japan Jan PPI (m/m) -0.6%p -0.2%e (y/y) 1.5%p 1.1%e
  • 0330 am Sweden Riksbank rate decision – 25bps easing to -0.5% expected. 
  • 0430 am UK Jan CPI (m/m) 0.2%p -0.7%e (y/y) 2.1%p 1.9%e / core 1.9%p 1.9%e 
  • 0430 am UK Jan PPI output (m/m) -0.3%p 0%e (y/y) 2.5%p 2.3%e / core 2.5%p 2.4%e / input 3.7%p 3.9%e
  • 0500 am Eurozone Dec industrial production  (m/m) -1.7%p -0.4%e (y/y)-3.3%p -3.2%e
  • 0540 am German 30Y Bund sale
  • 0545 am Italy 3-7-30Y BTP sale
  • 0715 am Atlanta Fed Bostic speech
  • 0830 am US Jan CPI (m/m) -0.1%p 0.1%e (y/y) 1.9%p 1.5%e /core 2.2%p 2.1%e
  • 0850 am Cleveland Fed Mester speech
  • 1030 am US weekly EIA oil inventories 1.263mb -0.5mb
  • 0200 pm US Dec budget statement -$205bn p -$12bn e
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