E Markets: Mourning

Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index is off 0.1% to 96.88 with 96.83-97.19 range. USD mixed with EMEA: ZAR up 0.7% to 13.756, TRY up 0.85% to 5.341, RUB up 0.2% to 66.72; ASIA: TWD off 0.35% to 30.79, KRW off 0.75% to 1114, INR flat at 70.467. 

  • EUR: 1.1355 up 0.1%. Range 1.1317-1.1358 with USD weakness still in play – 1.13-1.14 keys – watching Italy vs UK outcomes.
  • JPY: 112.95 up 0.15%. Range 112.65-113.12 with EUR/JPY 128.25 up 0.25% - despite equities – USD bounce in Asia with 112.50 key
  • GBP: 1.2770 up 0.4%. Range 1.2672-1.2798 with EUR/GBP .8830 off 0.3% - all about Brexit and 1.2650-1.2825 range consolidation – downtrend intact
  • AUD: .7295 off 0.6%. Range .7282-.7356 with GDP driving reversal and .7250 key. NZD off 0.1% to .6925 with .6950 key. 
  • CAD: 1.3280 up 0.1%.1.3253-1.3295 with oil and BOC the key – market ready for nothing today but January guidance essential. 
  • CHF: .9975 flat. Range .9970-1.0005 with EUR/CHF 1.1325 up 0.1% - watching Italy and UK then equities with 1.00 pivot. 
  • CNY: 6.8476 fixed 0.67% stronger– but now off 0.3% to 6.8565 with range 6.8441-6.8726.

Commodities: Oil lower, Gold lower, copper lower -0.3% to $2.8350.

  • Oil: $53.17 off 0.2%.Range $52.16-$53.42 with OPEC focus – then USD and equities. Brent off 0.3% to $61.88. Techincals point to $60-$62.50 consolidation. 
  • Gold: $1237.50 off 0.1%.Range $1235-$1239 with focus on USD and equities as drivers and $1225 base for $1248 test. Silver off 0.3% to $14.48 with $14.50 pivot. Platinum off 0.6% to $799.70 and Palladium up 1.45% to $1250.20. 

ConclusionsIs the US in a credit crunch? The reversal of forturn in US shares has been linked to trade and yield curve inversions, but the stock market rotations and credit concerns are flashing yellow as well. The leveraged loan losses from November merit some attention. Its worth considering as year-end likely brings another squeeze for debtors. 

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