“Markets In Turmoil” – The Upside Of Downside

Fear is in the air again. Over the past few weeks, the S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000 have given back all of their gains on the year.

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Note: Index price returns, does not include dividends.

Meanwhile, international indices have fared much worse, with the average country ETF down 14% year-to-date.

Note: Total return, in U.S. Dollars, as of 10/24/18. Data Source for all tables herein: YCharts.

The list of countries hitting 52-week lows is a mile long…

And a number of key sectors are hitting their lowest levels in over a year…

If the month ended today, it would be the worst for the S&P 500 since February 2009…

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Unsurprisingly, financial media has taken notice. For the second time in two weeks, CNBC has aired an after-hours special report…

Historically, such reports have have served as a bullish contrarian indicator, with above-average S&P forward returns and gains 100% of the time looking out over the next 3-12 months.

Now, before you get too excited, there’s an important caveat that must be noted.

The dataset of “Markets in Turmoil” reports starts in 2010, and is, therefore, is limited to a bull market run where corrections have been short-lived. When next real bear market hits, there will surely be losses following these specials.

That said, as a short-term sentiment gauge, it’s been a pretty good one. And as a trader playing a bounce, I would much rather see a “markets in turmoil” special than regular programming.

For longer-term investors, the upside of downside is clear: it’s an opportunity to add money or reinvest dividends at lower prices/valuations and higher prospective returns. All long-term investors still in the adding/reinvesting phase should be rooting for a bear market today, and many more “markets in turmoil” specials in the years to come. Bring it on.

Disclaimer: At Pension Partners, we use Bonds as our defensive position in our absolute return strategies for all of the above reasons. Bonds have provided a more consistent defensive alternative to ...

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