E Markets: Hell

Commodities: Oil lower, gold lower, Copper up 0.1% to $2.8215.

  • Oil: $53.72 off 0.55%.Range $53.53-$54.21 with US inventory build one driver, weaker growth forecasts from Europe the other. Brent off 0.35% to $62.48 with focus on $62 as pivot. 
  • Gold: $1310.70 off 0.3%.Range $1306.40-$1311.60 with safe havens bid for CHF and JPY but not gold – suggests $1305 still key with $1320 bounce possible. Silver up 0.1% to $15.72, Platinum off 0.7% to $808.30, Palladium up 0.1% to $1353.60. 

ConclusionsIs US productivity the risk to the S&P500?  The US market looks relatively strong compared to Europe today. The market in equities has been bid up but the mood is changing over the last 48 hours – and some of the risks are about earnings into 2019. Linking earnings to productivity and investment is the stuff of economists and these two charts are worth considering for some of the risk reduction. 

Economic Calendar:

  • 0830 am US weekly jobless claims 253k p 225k e
  • 0100 pm US sells $19bn 30Y bonds
  • 0200 pm Mexico central bank rate decision – no change from 8.25% expected.
  • 0300 pm US Dec consumer credit $22.2bn p $16bn e
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