E Markets: Dealing

Commodities: Oil up, Gold down, Copper up 1.7% to $2.7010. 

  • Oil: $50.83 up 1%. Range $49.71-$51.09 with $50 break opening $52 next. Brent up 1.8% to $59.77 with $60 focus (traded $60.05 highs overnight). US inventories key along with equities. 
  • Gold: $1281.60 off 0.3%.Range $1280.90-$1288.10 – watching USD and risk mood for direction – risk is $1265 before $1305. Silver $15.67 off 0.25%, Platinum $826 up 0.5%, Palladium $1278 up 1.3%. 

ConclusionsIs weaker data good? The Fed reaction function to markets and economic data is still the most important driver for risk-taking today.  The lack of hard economic data releases today makes this all about FOMC speakers and FOMC minutes for data watching. However, the JOLTS report yesterday merits some though. Even as opening exceeds the total unemployed, the number of openings went down in November. The US jobs market is losing some momentum and it puts the weekly claims on the docket Thursday as something to watch for a larger turn in the US cycle. 

Economic Calendar:

  • 0800 am Poland interest rate decision – no change from 1.5% expected
  • 0815 am Canada Dec housing starts 215.9k p 204k e
  • 0820 am Atlanta Fed Bostic speech
  • 0900 am Chicago Fed Evans speech
  • 1000 am Bank of Canada rate decision – no change from 1.75% expected. 
  • 1030 am US weekly EIA oil inventories 0.007mb p 
  • 1100 am BOC news conference
  • 1130 am Boston Fed Rosengren speech
  • 0100 pm US 10Y note $24bn sale
  • 0200 pm US FOMC minutes

 

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