Market Talk - Friday, Oct. 19

Another negative open today but fortunately was not to last! Although China’s GDP released lower than expected weekend book squaring and absolute levels helped revive values by the close, also helped by a little “authoritative” speech play. Growth came in at 6.5% YOY which was missed the 6.6% markets were looking for, but the Shanghai did rally 2.6% following supportive measures. Today's bounce helped but remains 2.5% lower on the week. The currency still plays around the 6.93 level whilst many talk the magic 7 number. It remains 6.5% weaker on the year, but whilst the Shanghai is 23% lower YTD there is still a lot of work ahead of the November 30th trade talks. the Nikkei opened around 1.5% lower than managed to find its feet but still closed off -0.56%. The Yen has been incredibly quiet this week whilst remaining opportunistic to safety runs. SENSEX resumed trading after the holiday yesterday but remains heavy. The INR has bounced a touch but stocks are suffering probably because of that. The trend looks to be the same however for next week, with a resumption of equity selling (possible target 33,800) and a weaker currency.

European markets were encouraged by the Shanghai’s bounce and so we opened core indices in positive territory. That wasn’t to last that long because we started to see selling hit the peripheral bond markets with Italian debt out 15bp at one stage. Late in afternoon trading, there were some positive noises coming from the EU surrounding the Italian budget and buckled with “official support rumors” helped BTP’s to close 21bp tighter on the day. News came too late for FTSE MIB too as that had been trading weaker for much of the day. Closing near its lows the weekend's headlines will be closely watched for Mondays direction. CAC and DAX both off around -0.45% while the UK’s FTSE closed up +0.32% on – then 0 weaker currency. However, in late US trading, the Pound has rallied on optimism of positive BREXIT headlines expected over the weekend. Economic data is being watched, but unless it is way off of market consensus is tending to be ignored. There are far too many structural issues to be concerned about data currently.

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