Market Signals For The US Stock Market And Indian Stock Market - Monday, Jan. 14

 The S&P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week.

The market got its oversold bounce of about a 250 points but a 5-year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish.

Looking for significant underperformance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India VIX is below the US VIX suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5-year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg Omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression.

Quantitative tightening by the Fed is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2610 (up) and 2585 (down) on the S&P 500 and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are my own and must not be taken as advice to buy or sell securities.

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