Market Narrative With Supply And Demand
You do need a cunning plan in the markets. First, try to work out the controlling narrative. Second, see if it the market agrees with your opinion. Of course it is best that the market agrees with you before you act, otherwise that will be very lonely and most likely wrong.
Video length: 00:13:53
The chart in the video.
Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing. We believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
Investing Quote...
..“The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental Law Of Vibration"…."After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law Of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware of either”..
William D Gann
..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell"..
John Templeton
.."If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks"..
John (Jack) Bogle
.....“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..
Martin Zweig
My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.
Marc Faber
To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic a wealth of knowledge is available via our more
The big worry over Apple is that it is losing its cell phone marketshare in Asia and that has always tended to spell bad news for the rest of the World sooner or later. Look at what happened to Motorola and Nokia for instance. However, it's not as bad as it looks. Some of it is artificial cause by Trumps trade war. And some of it is pricing that Apple has not addressed. Simply put, the market is more competitive with competing products and lower component costs yet Apple keeps pricing high. You can argue brand value but when it's expensive in the US it's not really affordable in China and other emerging countries.
I think this has been heavily considered in the low PE Apple trades for. However, as discounting in expectation and reality sets in I wouldn't want to play it. I'd rather wait until Apple takes the leap and discounts their handsets to pull their pricing into line with the rest of the handset market. That said, Apple is not a dead stock and certainly is not worth selling for huge capital gains tax here. It is a waiting game more than a sell as bears would tell you. I don't expect a big Apple run up in the next year unless the whole market runs. Then it doesn't matter. It will be a function of "are you in the market or not?"