Market Is Weakening But Still In Uptrend

  • SPX Monitoring purposes;  Sold SPX on 2/12/19 at 2744.73 gain 1.36%; long 2707.89 on 2-8-19.
  • Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
  • Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78

(Click on image to enlarge)

VIX trades opposite of SPY. VIX can give clues of what the SPY may do next. Back in October 2018, the SPY made a lower low and VIX matched its previous high and a bullish divergence for the SPY suggesting a low. In November early December the SPY matched its previous low and VIX made a higher high suggesting SPY may make a lower low (and it did). The SPY is matching its December high and the VIX is making a lower low compared to its December low and a bullish divergence. This condition suggests the SPY may not retrace much of its advance and once the retracement is done, the VIX suggests the SPY will exceed its December higher ( the 2800 SPX range). Market could flip sideways. We will wait for a clearer setup.  

(Click on image to enlarge)

The top window is the 100 hour moving average of the tick. When 100 tick is above “0” than generally the SPX is moving higher and below “0” market may be moving lower. The 100 hourly tick has turned down but is still above “0”, suggesting the market is weakening but still in uptrend. The bottom window is the 30-hour moving average and the same rules apply. This shorter term moving average has fallen below “0” and a short term bearish sign. Next window up is the hourly Cumulative tick. The cumulative tick rises and falls as the SPX rises and falls. Over the last couple of weeks the cumulative tick increased its angle of rising, showing strength, but over the last couple of days it has rolled over and nearing it moving average. The SPX has reached its November, December higher near 2800 range and a resistance area. The different configurations of the tick are starting to show weakness. Support is near the 200-day moving average which is near the 2725 SPX range. 

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Disclaimer: Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future ...

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