Market Commentary, Extreme Sentiment & Breadth, Bitcoin $19K

The market has caught fire this week. After a solid Monday (only the Russell 2000 was very strong at +1.85%), everything was up yesterday: 

S&P +1.62% (SPX) Nasdaq +1.31% (NDX) Russell +1.94% (IWM)

We now sit right on the verge of a breakout to new ATHs for the S&P and Nasdaq while the Russell is making new ATHs almost everyday. In fact, the Russell is +20.5% through Tuesday (11/24), its best month ever according to Ryan Detrick (Chart Source: Twitter: @RyanDetrick). More than 80% of its components are above their 200 DMAs, the most since at least 2014 (Chart Source: Twitter: @PrattyCharts). And while the S&P and Nasdaq had excellent days yesterday, the #Rotation trade is still on in full force as investors continue to rotate from #StayAtHome #PandemicBenificiary stocks into #ReOpen names (Chart Source: Twitter: @murphycharts).

That’s what’s happening in terms of price. Now I want to discuss an excellent blog post from Sentiment Trader’s Troy Bombardia on extreme sentiment and breadth, known in technical analysis as internals (“Once in a Blue Moon Sentiment and Breadth, Bombardia). 59% of Sentiment Trader’s sentiment indicators are showing excess optimism right now, a 15 year high. As I wrote yesterday mornings, the vaccines news and the breakout in the Russell 2000 has gotten everyone all bulled up. Since 1998, this kind of extreme sentiment has always led to months of chop, pullback or even crashes.

Although we have been covering this quite a bit in the morning email, Bombardia also points out that breadth is also extreme. For example, 90% of S&P components are above their 200 DMAs. While the sentiment readings are short to medium term bearish according to Bombardia, the breadth readings have been unambiguously bullish since 1998 with the S&P being up 99% of the time 1 year later. Bombardia concludes:

The two narratives can coexist if we consider two different time frames. While unimaginably high sentiment can and usually does lead to short term losses and volatility, incredibly strong breadth is more of a long term bullish sign for stocks (SPY).

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