E Market Briefing For Wednesday, Oct. 9

While the domestic and global concerns rage, the market (and in some cases politicians, statesmen and central bankers) has managed to get out of purges, while all of the surges are tempered. That's a reticence, as is very understandable, for investors to come into this market given all that is not known; while there are lots of known unknowns.  

Even the Fed has difficulty assessing the rapidity of change globally, as Chairman Powell himself alluded to in his speech yesterday (mentioning to a bit of surprise, the Middle East situation and he didn't mean Ohio). (I was trying to lighten-up with that reference.)  

He basically reemphasized 'data dependency' and peaking my interest a bit, he notably mentioned transparency without the old historical 'lag'. I think this goes beyond the modern data-reporting technology, but Oil in-particular (remember I put more emphasis on Oil impacting markets, than most do; and generally in the opposite direction as I see firmness in Crude as a Plus, not a minus, reflecting a stronger economy and so it becomes less significant as higher prices are offset in better times).  

Setting aside my thoughts on this (remarkably similar for years related to what Chairman Powell said today), he related it to measuring overall services and activities. He's talking about rapid changes that challenge the Fed; that would be my interpretation of his referencing challenging 'puzzles' that formerly triggered historical accurate and flat-out wrong conclusions.   

I think Fed Chairman Powell today is saying productivity and the swirl of events may shift over time as 'society adjusts' to these challenges. I am pleased he recognized that the outcome can't yet be known. This is a form of monetary frustration, and even understated digital growth that is now ubiquitous; so if that's essentially an excuse why the Fed might be overshooting in terms of ease, well he's saying he can't answer it.  

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