The 'path of least resistance' is 'theoretically' upward, but increasingly lots more dependent on just a handful of stocks, with offerings vanishing at slight signs of faltering. This can be a warning, as a slightly rising VIX suggests too.

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As you know, I try to listen to the messages of the market, not 'command' the market to do anything, which is often not successful. The current message is, as it has often been over recent months, one of reticence by most stocks, at the same time the Senior Indexes manage to gain, especially cap-weighted.

Certainly there are numerous fundamental challenges, as well as fiscal worry about how much 'tapering' the Fed will engage in, and what the impact will be (TSLA). But that's coming, and at the same time the projected 'stagflation' marches on with all the supply chain and shortage discussion prevailing too (led by Oil).

Some of the mega-stocks (AAPL) that dominated could 'sell-down' (a bit) after earning reports, but these are short-term prospects, and don't define even November, which many think will be particularly strong, and I have trouble concurring on that. One reason would be the ongoing pandemic and lack of continued rapid growth beyond what's already occurred, until we get a 'sustainable' resolution and not merely vaccines that merely confer resistance to severe disease.

For that reason, COVID remains at the heart of concerns, and one reason that I keep an eye on developments is not because of any single stock we cover but because a 'real' protective vaccine (against getting infected, not just very sick) would deliver the TKO to the virus, and a 'technical knockout' to the market.

It is a boxing match to a degree, and initially a 'useful' conclusion (or antiviral pill that works early-on or easy-to-use monoclonal antibodies which aren't the ones available so far) .. a useful conclusion would put COVID on a back-burner and allow life to truly open up.

That would however, empower the Fed to perhaps 'tighten' not merely 'taper', and that would ensure a setback to the S&P / NDX, before they recovered in all probabilities. While Oil was believed most significant to underpin rallies for this year, I suspect progress is gaining a 'true' upper-hand on COVID matters in 2022, as well as how the Fed responds to all this (SPX, NDX, OIL).