E Market Briefing For Wednesday, Oct. 21

So the bigger-picture is interesting, because it's irresolute. Poorer people now face literal Depression conditions, which can be ameliorated by Stimulus, but it of course is occurring at a time people and volunteers that help, not just the (in some cities more so than others) medical community, are just exhausted.

We are talking about a couple trillion dollars of spending, we're talking of help to the Banks by virtue of fewer-then-otherwise loan defaults if people are able to muddle-along until we 'bridge' this time between political strife mixed-in with denials or affirmation of the precautionary social situation amid COVID. Mostly it still comes-back to resolving COVID, which removes lots of the social angina as well as economic malaise, and yes that includes less overt activism.

So maybe an 'event' or post-Election market purge here (allowing for rebound intraweek and more dependent on Stimulus or not, more than the Debate), in a sense contributes to 'global synchronized economic resurgence' looming in 2021, with decks cleared. There's too much controversy to define it closer.

But of course it's still a bit early to have confidence in global resurgence (we can't know the pace of mass produced vaccines, we can't know precisely how the rest of the world resolves, and we can't know how China plays by rules as this evolves).

In-sum: clearly this market dislikes uncertainty, but one has to throw in COVID, as it's on the rise almost everywhere in the world (just the facts, not politics on this topic, whatever anyone says in most metro areas the situation is darker at best, and the unbridled encouragement of less socially responsible stances is a possible gasoline-on-fire situation). The case isn't for lock-down but socially responsible behavior, which will help the population get to the next phase.

Conclusion: I hear doctors and officials extolling the need to wear masks, not get lax, and appreciate the crisis. I also see some media proclaiming reduced hospitalizations and mortality. So what to make of it? Probably both are valid, but only in certain locales and circumstances. Overall it's really a struggle.

I don't believe many aspects of life (or the future for the market) irrevocably at this point aren't returning, just not as soon as we would all like. The suffering poor and unexpectedly unemployed are definitely nervous about Stimulus as well as the vote, and that's a reason a Bill should be cobbled together.

Earlier today I reiterated a story (and saw the video) that Mitch McConnell would take a bill to the Floor if Mnuchin and Pelosi agreed on a deal. Now, making sense of it gets even more confounding, as NBC reports privately he told panels the opposite and that the President wouldn't approve it. What's the real story? Both parties will get blamed if there's no stimulus. And voters tend to cycle back to their earlier postures, which makes the 'race' tighten up now.

We don't know, it's hard to imagine ill-will potentially brewing if politics of this descend into more back-channel bickering at this late stage. Of course there's malarkey going-on about funds remaining from the last stimulus trance.

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