A question remains as to whether we get conventional rallying by the S&P with guarded participation elsewhere, and whether or not that's worthy or just a complacent (plus sporadic short-covering) flirting with the highs like a ship of fools headed towards an iceberg in the freezing North Atlantic, and whether or not that will have an immediate response post-Election (if outcome known). So for now keep hatches battened down, while allowing a 'Stimulus' pop.

Executive summary:

• S&P alternating shuffles related to sensitivity about Stimulus news, at the same time there is (politics aside), a lifting trend related to lock-downs, an exception being California which denies Disneyland (DIS) reopening until there is the lowest-level of community spread according to Disney's CEO.

• Stimulus wasn't determined by Pelosi & Mnuchin before the Close, but Senator McConnell said he'd bring it to the Floor if they make a 'deal', (a series of contradictory media reports leaves that prospect wavering).

• DOJ confronts Google (GOOGL) in the biggest challenge of the last decade, so if there's a breakup would parts be worth more than the whole, perhaps.

• They accuse Google of 'protecting an illegal monopoly', shares dipped and then rallied right back on the news, of course that relates to what in Google is called 'Code Red', which refers to their Apple (AAPL) relationship (in it Google pays Apple to be the 'default search engine', huge revenue).

• Netflix (NFLX) EPS missed, as far lower subscriber adds, impacts FANG types, also reflects either viewers watching everything offered, plus competing 'over-the-top' streamers like Peacock NBC (CMCSA), HBO Max AT&T (T), Disney (etc.).

• Netflix will really get worried as we emerge from COVID when others can spend more on 'proper production' as well as the broad return of 'sports', also little noticed, a just-added Apple Music TV, an effort to broaden the scope of Apple TV+ (continuous current top music videos running 24/7).

• Long-followed Texas Instruments (TXN) beat numbers with better guidance as well, addressing notable demand in 'automotive' sectors (indirectly relates to sensor-monitoring and controls, autonomous or otherwise, our interest in vehicular electronics persists as these transformative trends evolve.

• Snap (SNAP) beat numbers too, and a tiny profit, but I don't know why surprised in this environment with kids using such Apps consistently, guidance then shifted to calling for strong growth ahead (or will emergence from COVID in a sense tame online use as the coming year unfolds?), not as of yet.

• I wouldn't be surprised if the behavior of social media stocks, during the 'wake' of divisive environments, changes in 2021, sort of the designation of social media giants as publishers (by regulators) in some cases.

• This would be some effort to reign-in their supplanting once omnipresent mainstream media, that itself became too-agenda driven, in what became a very free-wheeling environment.

• Politicians won't succeed in suppressing free speech, and there are risks with self-righteous 'woke' attitudes as well, at this point, the best part of all this may be Americans seeing this for the civics lesson that it became.

• And that's the rights of free expression, while sometimes the outrageous fake news or conspiracies conflict with censorship all both (confounding), as journalism generally struggles to return to its roots (Edward R. Murrow wouldn't give many awards to this era's crop of on-air 'personalities').

• The run-up in 'solar stocks' may be almost as volatile over time as we've seen in COVID plays, although they are sending a message related to the Election, as obviously Trump is not enthused about solar, while Biden is.

• However we're following S&P (SPX) primarily and not trying to 'game the vote' for the budding industries that might benefit under Biden (Solar & .. Pot).

• Speaking of 'budding' the polls seemed stoned as they roll, generally lean more toward a 'Blue Wave', though now narrowing, as you'll recall what happened in 2016, this isn't over until the Fat Lady sings, is it taxes?.

• By the way it's hard to believe arguments that COVID is retreating, when it is only today that the governments of New York, Pennsylvania and even New Jersey, are discouraging travel between them to 'limit the spread'.

• And today Ireland went back into 'full lock-down', that's an economic as well as health crisis, and has nothing to do with American politics, I wish more leaders and our media would ponder this sober reality.

• As to emergence, perhaps Comcast and Amazon (AMZN) sends the message, both told working-from-home staff to expect doing so until June 2021.

Who among us believes the Election will be settled that night? Who believes the economy will recover next year almost regardless of the outcome? We all have our views, mine for now (definitely subject to revision) is for a correction again but not catastrophe, with small business relatively better next year.

But, and that's a huge but, it requires stabilization of the pandemic's duration, more so than the outcome politically, though of course we stand by our view of capital-gains related selling pulled into this year, especially if perceptions of higher taxes ahead cause usual reluctance to delay sales into a new tax year.

At the same time, the overall high-level S&P begs the question: what if Trump wins, and we get a huge blow-off or resurgence (no higher taxes helps too in such an outcome). The market's internal corrections haven't 'undercut' S&P's overall pattern, at least not so far. That sort of illustrates a 'tired' market, with a continued narrowness as investors basically nurse pre-election 'bets', or just plan riding-through the Election Season with post-chaos pre-2021 optimism.

That's how S&P manages to flirt with a structural 'double-top' built over these last few weeks, and that's at least the superficial technical picture. In our view even with a bullish alternative for the market, there's remains relatively little potential upside for 'super-cap' or FANG-type stocks, while smaller stocks for sure have more or less defensively languished in-anticipation of better times, but realizing (depending on their industry) much relies on emerging from this.

The market essentially is 'stringing us along' it could be said, pending what we get as an outcome of the Elections. And the S&P's (and seemingly analysts) bias for a Trump victory, leaves traders in a quandary for a few reasons more or less unrelated to how the vote goes, but what happens to 'civility' (to use a gentle term) if he wins, or also if the 'vote' goes into a dispute, how long does that leave uncertainty dominating until it's resolved? Will the people more or less get 'unhinged' on a societal basis, and would that ruffle stocks?

So the bigger-picture is interesting, because it's irresolute. Poorer people now face literal Depression conditions, which can be ameliorated by Stimulus, but it of course is occurring at a time people and volunteers that help, not just the (in some cities more so than others) medical community, are just exhausted.

We are talking about a couple trillion dollars of spending, we're talking of help to the Banks by virtue of fewer-then-otherwise loan defaults if people are able to muddle-along until we 'bridge' this time between political strife mixed-in with denials or affirmation of the precautionary social situation amid COVID. Mostly it still comes-back to resolving COVID, which removes lots of the social angina as well as economic malaise, and yes that includes less overt activism.

So maybe an 'event' or post-Election market purge here (allowing for rebound intraweek and more dependent on Stimulus or not, more than the Debate), in a sense contributes to 'global synchronized economic resurgence' looming in 2021, with decks cleared. There's too much controversy to define it closer.

But of course it's still a bit early to have confidence in global resurgence (we can't know the pace of mass produced vaccines, we can't know precisely how the rest of the world resolves, and we can't know how China plays by rules as this evolves).

In-sum: clearly this market dislikes uncertainty, but one has to throw in COVID, as it's on the rise almost everywhere in the world (just the facts, not politics on this topic, whatever anyone says in most metro areas the situation is darker at best, and the unbridled encouragement of less socially responsible stances is a possible gasoline-on-fire situation). The case isn't for lock-down but socially responsible behavior, which will help the population get to the next phase.

Conclusion: I hear doctors and officials extolling the need to wear masks, not get lax, and appreciate the crisis. I also see some media proclaiming reduced hospitalizations and mortality. So what to make of it? Probably both are valid, but only in certain locales and circumstances. Overall it's really a struggle.

I don't believe many aspects of life (or the future for the market) irrevocably at this point aren't returning, just not as soon as we would all like. The suffering poor and unexpectedly unemployed are definitely nervous about Stimulus as well as the vote, and that's a reason a Bill should be cobbled together.

Earlier today I reiterated a story (and saw the video) that Mitch McConnell would take a bill to the Floor if Mnuchin and Pelosi agreed on a deal. Now, making sense of it gets even more confounding, as NBC reports privately he told panels the opposite and that the President wouldn't approve it. What's the real story? Both parties will get blamed if there's no stimulus. And voters tend to cycle back to their earlier postures, which makes the 'race' tighten up now.

We don't know, it's hard to imagine ill-will potentially brewing if politics of this descend into more back-channel bickering at this late stage. Of course there's malarkey going-on about funds remaining from the last stimulus trance.