E Market Briefing For Wednesday, May 5

The Fed knows they'll have to pare-down the excess quantitative stimulus and let Treasury bills move up a bit, and perhaps the sooner the better, given that a slew of stocks have already been retreating. Other issues that might impact markets include of course China (with any impact on Apple being a big deal).

Tonight I will add to last night's 'catalyst' list, by splitting the 'summary' into two sections, first relating to China and then on other market matters today.

Executive Summary (this portion focuses first on China/Taiwan):

  • Renewed threats by China and another of their Air Force flyovers, follows our emphasis on the insane (fanatic) objective of President Xi to conquer Taiwan basically (beyond what he did with Hong Kong.. so far anyway).
  • The response by the United States has been fence-straddling even as we arm Taipei regularly, the EU concurs with standing-up to China, but really we should issue a clear policy statement on where we stand in-defense of Taiwan (or not).
  • Not to do so invites Chinese aggression (think of 'Chamberlain in Munich') and threatens (at least temporarily) the global semiconductor supply (that was the direct stock market implication we've mentioned).
  • I don't wish to associate this with my cynical (though I felt it) desire for a personal retaliation against the CCP for attacking me with their virus (:)), but let's face it, China's dream (as the old 'Brick & Road' initiative made so clear) is implementation of a world-wide communist one-party system based on a Chinese model, people try to argue that but look at the trail.
  • So I'm 'not exactly' saying the release of COVID was a biological attack on the human race to seize political power, but even if inadvertent, that might be the outcome (especially had they intentionally done so).
  • There is no doubt that China benefits economically from what COVID has wrought in much of the world (especially competitors like the US and EU, and arch-nemesis India).
  • The long-range after-affects of COVID you will be reading more about (like permanent heart and lung damage that seems to be seen in nearly half of all long-term COVID survivors) are going to risk or hinder the basic health of millions in those nations, and they don't even realize that (only fools tend to equate COVID with the Asian Flu or anything that preceded it).
  • Enough on China, the concern basically is that President Xi is not thinking as logically (like how both sides need Taiwan economically so avoid wars) as normal diplomats would presume he ponders matters (time will tell).
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