China's back to work to a degree, only reported one case yesterday, and Japan has people apparently recovered with combinations of the drugs, after South Korea had similar results. So forgive me if this is too intense and diverts from my normal financial journalistic approach, and I'm not at all wanting to be a medical reporter. However,these things do connect in a crucial way, and again.. social distancing is a fallback.. not tactic, and historically is used when you've lost the ability to contain and shifted to a mitigation strategy. Well with no travel, parts of the Nation can see basic containment work, while the tougher approach could be reserved for the hotspots. I think that's the President's plan, but I don't know. It's clearly not what they've given us this week, which is 'get in the bunkers', with no finessing of that at all.

And who am I to submit any plan, but with people like Dr. Drew (who was essentially a denier of what's going on) telling us to shut-up, or Facebook censoring discussion with limits to whatever CDC or HHS has to say, who are they to say others can't offer ideas, that they can throw-out entire (as they should if unworkable) ideas, or look-into if possible validity exists.  

That, to me, is the American way, not leaving all evaluation to censoring citizens searching for ideas. Hence I initially applaud Cheryl Sandburg of Facebook for a moving 'small business' funding plan, while I criticize her for advocating on TV today the limitation of information to anyone but official Washington. (And tonight I hear they admit an 'algo bug' caused 'factual news' to be periodically deleted as they scrub everyone's posts.)   

I think the opposite is true (I've visited this topic before, and it's part of the desire to call anything that's out there as 'conspiracy' or rumor, and while some is, scrubbing stories like the FBI arrests of the Harvard Professor or the espionage by Chinese researchers in Boston or Manitoba, is covering factual reporting, not conspiracy rumors). Labeling everything as rumor is a way of squashing public inquiry, suppresses free speech, and makes it seem appropriate for professional journalists to report merely handouts in contrast to digging for real information, and not photo-ops.  

Bottom-line: we have the collision of the Black Swans resulting in more of Newton's Law, which incidentally found Sir Isaac writing about things like modern physics, while quarantined during one of the UK's plagues.  

The debt burdens swell, while business goes to hell, so this is frightening in a great way, not to trivialize fighting the epidemic in any way. If we don't find an effective treatment within a couple weeks (not months), ready for at least 'Trial' in people here (following the Chinese trial) and relieve the economic freeze, the market and economy will experience bankruptcies the likes of which have never been seen since the 1930's. Remember we had a big rally after the crash of 1929 and then sank to .. 1932. We said a few times we don't want 1932.  

Too many still think this can 'washout' and rally sustainably. It cannot, yet. I saw the handwriting on the wall for correction more than 2 months ago, I realize this is a giant continuation pattern, that essentially is oversold by the most ever. But paychecks don't arrive by 'stochastic' indicators or any particular technical approach. Market bottoms after great damage occur, usually, in a process. The only way it can be a V bottom would be getting an actual drug that works. Did we just identify it? Probably not, but makes the point that it or a combination may work, and at that moment, you get a meaningful low point (or process) ensuing, not simply by throwing lots of money at the problem, as essential as that may be on the short-term. I am also worried about Government and service workers getting infected, and creating a true tsunami of fear, besides medical workers risks.    

I don't see how 'money fixes' work quick enough, much less absent any societal discord. It's insane for sure, I understand concern on both sides, while if you don't want financial futures of our children and grandchildren so decimated that most small businesses existing today get irrecoverable in a sense, you need to have a medical solution to a financial issue, fast.

Daily action - does not expect today's 'Newton Law's' rebound that yes I expected, but I don't expect it to hold. At minimum we drop back down to test and see; but I wouldn't be too optimistic although yes values start to appear; but the overall levels of the S&P don't reflect the new normal, if we even yet know (and we don't) what the new normal will be.  

That's by itself a problem, and the prospects of the 1932 variation are so glum that I think people don't grasp what's involved even now. All that is going on are legitimately causes for concern, exponential case-doubling, for now, is getting more warped and still climbing because we don't have widespread 'testing', and no effective treatment as of yet.  

The false sense of security is the idea that younger people are only risky as carriers, which is only partially true (and hence sad they they generally aren't mature enough... or often shouldn't be assumed that mature.. to be able to really grasp what is risked to those around them, or themselves). I hasten to emphasize that both guys I personally know infected so far, are 40 and 58, not 70's or 80's. (One is a doctor, the other a professor, and it may or may not be that they somehow thought they were immune to it as a result of being educated or enlightened, but that's irrelevant.)  

So yes this is the post-1929 crash rebound and it's probably over soon if not already, though it may not give up without an ensuing rebound. What the Fed did today, and Congress plods along with, is unique, presages a huge 'inflation' down the road by the way, but is a deflationary spiral first.   

Tonight the Democratic race is effectively over, with not just Biden's win in a landslide in Florida and Illinois, but all  one really needs to know on that topic. The Biden campaign needs a strong VP candidate, for obvious reasons, and Trump simply has to 'win the war on WuFlu' and if people at that point understand the significance, he'll probably be perceived vastly differently than many have before. And I suspect DJT knows that now.  

Conclusion: internal strains in the financial markets are why the Fed did a slew of moves, not to support stocks, regardless of how they respond. I believe it is essential however, that the Fed made systemically-protective moves, as they are doing. And fight WuFlu! Market will drop again.