Market Briefing For Wednesday, Jan. 13

Conspiracy triggered sedition against the United States as you know, and it now comes to a head. It has nothing to do with whether one considers Joe Biden as a capable or potentially soft candidate, and everything to do with the range of social elements (mostly within Republican ranks or flat-out radicals), that do not comprehend the Law or an understanding of our Constitution, and a President that refused (until after-the-event) to tell the supporters to 'chill'. It became sedition the minute after the SCOTUS ruling.

Executive Summary:

  • The stock market has fortunately been sanguine during these two days so far of my illness (I won't know until Thursday whether it's ...COVID.. or not).
  • And I suspected the market would be mostly neutral this week amidst the chaos leading to the plug being pulled on Donald Trump, who of course is taking no personal responsibility for what happened (he encouraged).
  • The insurrection will not easily be consigned to the past, regardless of the 'vote' to Impeach, and because Trump is the instigator, he won't resign (it would be the best course but he doesn't care enough about the Country).
  • At minimum Congress should censure Trump, which would be symbolic in a sense, but time allows for that (he shows no contrition at all).
  • FBI officials and others clarified the criminal offenses by Trump's mob that was whipped into a frenzy, remember he declined authorizing the 'Guard' quickly, and that alone was a form of 'obstruction' of calming things down, and it's so sad that the so-called law & order President is anything but.
  • Trump is pathetic and as usual turns against anyone or any institution that follows the Law or does anything he doesn't approve of, total dereliction it seems of his Constitutional responsibilities, again it seems hyperbolic and most Republicans will still support Trump, but if so they too don't get it.
  • I go back to Trump's comment 'before' the Election, that he would 'accept the Election result only if he won', doesn't that say all you need to know.
  • More Republicans recognize that Trump's actions merit impeachment, or even prosecution if the District Attorney of Washington DC proceeds.
  • This situation will take some time to sort-out, but now we know the FBI had warnings and distributed that, however it was not heeded properly.
  • As I opined on the day of the Georgia Senate election, Trump personally cost the Republicans the Senate with his rhetoric, and suspect McConnell rightly blames Trump for costing him control of the Senate.
  • This evening Pence says he won't invoke the 25th Amendment, but within the Republican Party there will not be an Impeachment unless Senators it seems vote it (the House will with some Republicans).
  • For those who continue to defy the law (and again I fallback on SCOTUS, a moment when I felt 'that' was crossing the Rubicon before last week), it will be a difficult time since they supported an insurrection.
  • Besides the (incomplete) 'draining of the swamp', the fact remains we had a President who stressed the system for his own glory and then motivated supporters to attack the Legislative branch.
  • Congress got the message so will now respond, while radicals marinated in their own conspiracy theories are as unprincipled as the far Left too, in the case of Trump he mitigated a few decent goals the Tea Party had, so if this doesn't result in a 'Center Right' GOP (not far right) it's in trouble.
  • This has to impact the stock market, which I suppose investors hope just hangs onto next week's post-Inauguration behavior.

And all this during what is a pandemic seemingly undeserving of his attention lately (I suspected some of Trump's outrageous contempt for the Constitution or SCOTUS as a lingering after-effect of his own bout with COVID, unknown). I am slightly optimistic that the market is treading-water with questionable hope that this gets behind us with less economic impact. After all it's 7 months now, since the George Floyd etc. protests in Portland, and they still go on.

Again, it is ludicrous to support extremism on the Right or the Left, or stupidity that seems pretty wide. The Crimson Tide won in Alabama, and again crowds of enthusiastic fans congregated without masks. Good people, zero protocols followed, so there you go, Tuscaloosa likely will have a big surge of cases.

Watch-out for our Country in the next few days, the security situation and also the repercussions of the President's betrayal of the Nation, precisely contrary to how his most-fervent supporters see him. Trump had an opportunity 'during' the riots last week to intervene and call-off the mob, but he didn't do it.

Rather, it's just as Lis Chaney (number 3 in the Republican hierarchy) noted today: Trump lit the flame and was at the core of the conspiracy. An obstinate support for Trump, for the most part, has melted away from any 'real' patriots, and that has nothing to do with many domestic and foreign policies that were properly initiated during the Trump Administration. This is different.

Even Mitch McConnell is bailing on this President, because he's basically had little-to-no respect for ... anything really. It's so sad, I didn't 'like' Trump due to his flawed character even before the 2016 Election, but personally favored his policies (many not all) and even the 'drain the swamp' objective. And forecast the stock market to 'go to the moon if he won'. I suppose if this is time to once again separate political views from investment decisions, it's not clear. But as Trump exits, after costing Mitch the Senate, it does matter now because of the 'somewhat' increased odds of more 'Left' economic influences, a concern.

In-sum: This pales to everything that occurred once SCOTUS thru-out all the Election challenges, that was the decisive point where anyone with any sort of grasp of the Constitution 'and' our Courts (in the case all Justices appointed by Trump ruled against him), and then Trump slammed the Court..making him a fool or a tyrant ignoring the highest Court. That day was the final arbiter on the Election challenge, and the day I concluded that 'even if' the vote was not as clear as many might prefer, you back off when there's a SCOTUS decision.

At the same time we'll hear more about how strong certain tech earnings are, due to lower overhead during the pandemic. But be careful, it still leads to a bit of a probable shakeout in February if not sooner, per my technical work.

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