Market Briefing For Wednesday, August 5

Executive summary:

  • The pandemic is not over, there is also an epidemic of violence by those who do not grasp the importance of both freedom of expression, free-market capitalism, and what some allege is now 'insurrection' requiring Federal intervention.
  • Given the proximity of Elections and the political season preceding, increasingly this becomes not only controversial, but can be an issue for 'certain stocks' that might suffer under a different tax environment.
  • Meanwhile nothing matters more than being able to refute what Dr. Brilliant (he was a top WHO expert during Smallpox, and now California epidemiologist) is saying today.
  • And that is that the world will be fighting coronavirus for the next three to four years, as virus hotspots skip from nation to nation, and the pandemic's toll will linger for decades.
  • That is similar to what the current WHO people said, as I refuted yesterday, and it is because I believe science will intercede.
  • New 52 week highs today in several favorites: AMD (AMD), LightPath (LPTHand Sorrento (SRNE), plus Amarin (AMRN) digested 'expected' lower earnings on higher revenue (costs of new pharma reps and development collided with COVID-19 and inability to visit docs as pharma reps do), nevertheless they did very well considering, now we await the outcome of the appeal against the generics, but we suspect higher a year hence, regardless of whether they have to rollout their own generic Vascepa or not.
  • That's where stocks like our new (well more than two months but newly nearly-vertical) big home-run Sorrento Therpeutics 'solution portfolio' really matters.
  • I don't like rumors or possibilities, but who doesn't think President Trump would be eager to embrace a test that would clear the way to opening the economy in a wider way before Elections, and Sorrento says their test can do that (not sure so quick; but there are few if any alternatives..);
  • By the way, note a pharma called Celularity, a subsidiary of Celgene (CELG), however in the deal Sorrento retained ownership of 25% of it.... and Robert Hariri, of Celularity, is said to be best friends with Rudy Giuliani, so there's that maybe.
  • We are not out of the 'Covid Woods', and won't be soon, but we still prefer to be optimistic about having faith in medical science (like SRNE) getting us both thru the pandemic, but more urgently with tests and therapeutics so we can really do the opening has had seriously harmed progress the way most states handled it.
  • Finally, I would like to note buyers aren't so insane as some think, they focused on 'what works' and that's super-caps for institutions, and biotech specs and a few others for investors and traders trying to eek-out gains in these tough times.
  • So maybe it's the pundits and skeptics for months, who missed the moves who need their heads examined a bit (couldn't resist that bit of slight humor).

Many cynics question the ability of the stock market to have a V bottom, while it's anything but that for the broad economy. Well, first of all I could reiterate the tried and true history of markets being a 'discounting mechanism', as it rallies by bridging gaps toward the actual economic recovery (typically 6-9 months after an S&P trough).

But in this case there are many variables, not the least of which is that broad 'heart of the Industrials' industries have not had a V bottom turnaround, just bounces. And for that matter most of those were in the dumps before COVID-19 arrived on the scene. It matters, because the traditional way of broad economic recovery, aside initial bounce moves across the board, is not what this projected S&P and Nasdaq thrusts off of the March 'Inger Bottom' lows were about, nor this assessed elongated trading range that simply grinds higher with limited net progress for the Averages.  

Rather it was about those stocks that would tend to 'do well' during a life-altering big event such as a pandemic. As it turns out; the shift to online 'everything' tended to be a boon to technology stocks directly benefiting, as well as pharma & biotech that, on a selective basis, were in-position to benefit, before, during and after deployment of a vaccine. And ideally that should be preceded by efficient test and therapeutics.

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