E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Sept. 15

A favorable backdrop - for a 'Hail Mary' rebound was looked-for this week, and the backgrounds M&A news (and more) definitely supported the bounce as well. That's a factor in creating this move 'to the degree' that it provides sufficient cushion for Bulls to work with even if it proves to be transitory.  

Aside the political risks that are extremely variable (or just uncertainty) there's overly  bullish views that 'bear markets are prohibited by the new generation' (nonsense), but if you factor in Fed policy, you get an argument of it being delaying.  

What that's going to result in will be higher inflation sooner rather than later, with the Fed frozen into inaction for a longer period. Yes I know I view their goal to repay debt with depreciated Dollars, but I also note their mandate is (or was) 'price stability' not the opposite as these policies thrust a lot of conservative investors (including pension funds) into taking more aggressive equity risks than they might otherwise. Many large pensions are underfunded because they have impossibly high actuarial requirements, so they scout around for what they're permitted to venture into. Risky business.

(Lots of this 'letdown' has to do with COVID's latest surge, most media minimizes it, perhaps to make the U.S. look even worse, but in many ways this again is global.)

Executive Summary:

  • As part of the 'process' we expected an intraweek rebound, it got kicked-off to start with, given the M&A News (especially Nvidia (NVDA) buying ARM Holding (ARMH) which is actually incredible, but won't impact Apple's (AAPL) licensed rights).
  • Antitrust or British regulators might question this 40 Billion Softbank (SFTBY) sale, ARM is perhaps the premier technology company in the UK, so no matter how bullish some pundits are on Nvidia, if you don't own it I personally wouldn't chase just on the idea of a selling wave 'if' regulators frown on this transaction.
  •  Speaking of Apple, their Presentation Tuesday will likely mention Apple silicon as well as a 'bundle' of services, not just iPhone, iPad, Watch, Apple TV news.
  • The TikTok deal isn't entirely clear, as moving to Oracle (ORCL) servers isn't really totally secure unless unspecified aspects of the deal make it so.
  • Merck (mrk) took a stake in Seattle Genetics (SGEN), and Gilead (GILD) is buying Immunomedics (IMMU), clearly this is a biotech (and cancer not just COVID) M&A season, interesting deals in which one is either in a stock 'before' the deal or really just watch the 'show', in this case interest in what 'may' unfold for a small speculations increases.
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