Market Briefing For Tuesday, May 28

A 'Digital Iron Curtain' aptly describes the '1st Tech Cold War' seemingly unfolding. Perhaps it won't be so draconian beyond reasonably competitive multi-polar trends; the awareness of which in-itself can presage some sort of calming tone to the inflammatory rhetoric. Even Chinese leaders are aware.. failing to 'deal' can lead to a chopping-off of their own heads and losing the manufacturing relationship they built up for decades. So they need not 'fire up' dragons in the U.S. they've been nibbling at (by IP theft etc.) for so many years; but instead stop chasing their own tail and stem the outgoing tide for a lot of their industries. And I'm sure the U.S. negotiating team counts on it.

However, in the short-run this creates a serious 'lack of transparency' for all markets; and of course derails the excessive expectations that preceded the 'reneging' on the part of Beijing (it's not even important that they have quite a different view; as the outcome is essentially the same if they push too far); while accusing us of pushing for too much. I understand about sovereignty and so on; but they were coming-along until they decided to approach us as they did the Japanese years ago in a trade battle; and that's a mistake. As I mentioned; I suspect President Xi was ready to deal; and others in China's hierarchy somehow overrode him. Regardless they have a tougher time, by virtue of starting the so-called People's War and castigating U.S. products. 

   

All this retards any sort of sensible guidance from technology companies (others as well); while the swirling currents even make it hard to manage or decide where to source product and/or materials from. It's a supply-chain quagmire that presumably unfolds; and that makes logistic managers contemplate just solving it once-and-for-all, by moving production to alternative countries with (often) even lower manufacturing cost basis than China, as in many cases it's not coming back to the United States.

Against that backdrop, currency pressures (abated at the moment) dulled at least temporarily some of the impact of tariffs; causing less price disruption, including retail, than the behavior of many of those stocks might suggest as already here. They are forthcoming 'in theory'; but the risk for the Bears now remains chasing the downside (of those sectors, which are off far more than the S&P or DJIA) 'after-the-fact' of a multi-month decline that we forewarned was preceding risks for the S&P; hence its breakdown may come close to a low point; or as suggested for awhile; really be a correction not catastrophe. 

In-sum: aside all the baked-in news, and extreme vitriol from China that's a tempest in a teapot (although risks getting out-of-control); I suspect they still wish to strike a 'balance' in all this; and suspect Washington counts on it.  

The 'real' tempest and an actual teapot, goes on in the U.K.; which tempered Sterling for some time; while likely having bullish implications beyond initial 'hard Brexit' despair (should that be the outcome as is increasingly likely) as many presume (aside City of London property owners around Canary Wharf losing some prime tenants to Paris, Frankfurt, Brussels or elsewhere).  

 

Bottom-line: Senior Index rallied as expected Friday morning (based on the 'softer' comments from the President late Thursday) and then sort of meandered lower through the session, with a little late fade (an absence of bids), going into the Holiday weekend.  

Think of our Forces, some of whom now have to deploy, right on Memorial Day weekend. That by the way will likely be to the Green Zone (and related bases) in Iraq; as 'Force Protection' reinforcements, given the looming Shia militia group threats, after that are basically done fighting Isis; and now want the U.S. out of there. Recall a view that Iraq became a virtual Iranian puppet state, and we behave 'as if' it's our ally. Heads up about that. It's also been stated (without hard evidence); that the attacks on the oil tankers, and that Aramco pipeline was ordered by 'the highest levels' of Tehran authority. Be that as it may (and that implies the orders came not from the Quds Forces, but from the actual leadership); it's troubling and this is a potential cauldron. It's an entirely different issue (aside Iran's oil sales to China) than 'trade'. 

The new week should see selling and then a little short-covering squall; but nothing sustainable before we head lower; barring some positive news.  

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