Tension on the tape - is not for now about capital battles, it's not about the Dollar as it eases, it's not about the curious mix of funding the Senate just came up with, nor is it even about the Fed, which has a meeting today. However, while it's not 'all about COVID-19', it is COVID-19 severely restraining everything 'other than' the stocks that benefit.  

It is somewhat about a synchronized global recovery that basically nobody believes, at least for now, will really emerge, even those that are long the leading stocks. As a matter of fact, they may be long the overpriced 'super-caps' to avoid investing in the true bargains in the general industrial area.  

Executive summary:

• Not a lot newsworthy and no technical pattern changes for the Indexes.

• We do have the (antitrust or just lip-service) technology hearing coming.

• Earnings from Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) might be nothing special, past quarters will be tough acts to follow, but even if they do drop, it's temporary.

• Yes gains should be looked-for outside of just big-techs, but that's been the case for some time now, however overall S&P risks is shuffling and simmering.

• Europe is 'said' to be in a better economic recovery position than the USA, and that's true, 'but' there's another wave of COVID-19 sweeping Spain again, and we noted Belgium going into a 'hard lockdown' for 4 weeks starting right now.

• Their version of 'real' stay-home orders: every household is allowed to designate a total of 5 individuals (not 5 at a time) that are the only people they're allowed to associate with or designate to bring them supplies (try that in the USA, hah!).

• Notice (no surprise) big pharma vaccine makers are neutral or defensive, while the action is mixed or even stronger (but inconclusive of course) in biotechs.

• COVID-19 hit the West Wing, as National Security Advisor diagnosed, note that he was in France and met the (recovering?) President Macron, and O'Brien did brief Trump upon return, which was about 4 days ago, not two weeks.

• Dr. Fauci describes the first Moderna (MRNA) inoculation as a huge event, well we'll for sure know in a few.. months.

• I found the weekend CBS / Dr. Fauci vaccine interview, in which Nora did a good job not putting Bill Gates on the spot, but trying to get some vaccine clarity.

• 14 members of the Miami Marlins are positive, along with dozens of lifeguards and firemen in Newport Beach (Calif.) and the New Jersey shore, by no means is this pandemic under-control in most of the nation.

• Some case levels should now start to level off because of greater embrace of masks, despite foolish debates to the contrary about masks.

• Containment is still haphazard and very spotty in terms of lower case levels, but it only seems logical and people, no matter how reluctantly, become careful.

• Google telling workers to work-at-home for ONE YEAR is actually realistic, since based on vaccines you won't know what degree of protection exists for months.

• Hence I contend there is no substitute for a therapeutic / antiviral treatment, that it is nearly essential it be an oral pill, and if so we can emerge from this sooner.

• Florida doesn't have a mandatory mask order, but a Judge in Palm Beach did say "you do not have a Constitutional right to infect others", mask rule upheld.

• I anticipate the market to move higher still on Tuesday.   

So aside the cyclical and industrial stocks, the economically-sensitive stocks lag the superficial appearance of the S&P. Now, to value this market based on recovery, you have to seriously be optimistic about overcoming COVID-19 in a reasonable time. So yes if you don't have a real resolution (or better yet a 'pill' that functions as an antiviral), it changes the mix looking forward, and opens up the severe punishment so many for half a year have incorrectly assessed as being the favored direction for the S&P.

In-sum: The S&P is rangebound at a high level and actually behaving well ahead of the FOMC Meeting, more concerns about COVID-19 funding, and key earnings reports later in the week.