E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Jan. 5

  • Also: the 'cash-hit' that Boeing (BA) may take because of delayed deliveries due to the extended nature of COVID, is precisely the kind of problem that I had in mind about travel, tourism and returning to normalcy, which isn't as much a 2021 prospect as it is for 2022, sorry to say, but.. let's face it.
  • Flir Systems (FLIR) (that we've liked and watched all year) is being bought-out by Teledyne (TDY), arbitrage took FLIR up over 20% today as a result.
  • I cannot evaluate the significance other than growing business, but as far as I recall Teledyne 'and' Flir are both customers of LightPath, as (LPTH) consolidates on light volume, it could prep for a sharp rebound soon (but to generate that volume it probably requires news or a large buyer).
  • S&P 'probably' will rebound on Tuesday but then go into sort of a period of suspended animation, perhaps related to the Georgia Senate vote as being more important than even Wednesday's Electoral College final vote in Congress, because nobody with Constitutional sense expects change.
  • As to damage to the country from all this 'regardless', I'd like to demur as an optimist, and say finally the young generation had a civics lesson.. in some cases it seems it's their adult brethren that could also benefit.
  • Bottom-line: how we coordinate and navigate COVID 'is' still key to the market ahead, although very short-term there's a political aspect too.

In-sum: If I had to pick one 'fundamental' concern that's not discussed, might it be the speculation that all the so-far approved vaccines 'may' not work on a couple even-newer variants of the Coronavirus. I do not know if that's so, and at least most pharmas 'say' that they 'think' theirs does, but tests continue so it may very well be that the market is contemplating what we've talked about: it may be more like late this year or 2022 when we 'really' get through this for a large proportion of people and 2023 before cruising and so on 'truly' return.

'If' (and that's all a big unknown 'if') so, that also supports everything from new delays in cruising (where even with 30 cruise ships sold for cheap or scrap in the pandemic), there is an increased capacity of 40% within a year due to the arrival of previously contracted (mostly 'super-size') new cruise ships, which is the last thing the industry needs now.

Combine likely delayed Boeing jet deliveries, regardless of business or lack with China, and you have part of the answer to what the market might worry about, besides SPAC's, super-caps, EV, and all the rest. Speaking of 'the rest' we'll be covering CES just a bit, as this year's is virtual of course, as is much of our lives it seems. So expect a rebound, but beware sustainability.

I can sense the 'COVID-Panic' based on the half-dose discussions alone.

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William K. 1 month ago Member's comment

Thanks fir the large collection of information and insights, Just what UI needed!!