Calm prevailed - as is actually a fairly typical post-Thanksgiving trading start, although pundits strained to find more reasons for heightened anxiety.

There are a few, but generally not departing from known issues or exogenous events, that could inhibit a smooth market over the near-term. Those range of course, from a 'somewhat' overbought technical picture (distorted by big-caps versus the broad list which is in no way so extended as pricey FANG+ types), to the domestic political theatrics (valid or not) that continue to trigger debates on how next year will really go.

And there are exogenous risks, like with Iran, of course the tragic pandemic and how that will impact both the health and financial well-being of Americans now that there is optimism (somewhat misplaced or unknown) about vaccine solutions, which do not have the confidence of sufficient numbers of people. I am among skeptics, at least with regard to the first generation vaccines, but if my medical advice is to take it, I will seriously consider it (preferring antibody therapeutics, but we're not at that point yet, though both are needed).

Executive Summary:

• Dr. Scott Atlas has resigned his post after the controversial 'rebellious' approaches to dealing with COVID as a Presidential Advisor.

• Vice President Pence is talking-up vaccines tonight, being distributed by Dec. 14, which is fine, but among those who 'do' wish to get it, most won't have it available, so we'll see how organized this is going to be.

• Near-term big-picture catalysts are somewhat consumed, that's been our ongoing belief about S&P in this 'overshoot-zone' as I've termed it.

• First of all this is normal behavior so they use strength in Apple (AAPL) and such (or upgrades based on nothing much) to hold the Indexes fairly stable.

• Political uncertainties are factors, but not significantly definable for stock market purposes 'yet', because both parties contemplate more spending.

• Yes we are in a situation where the 'poor get poorer' due to no stimulus, in that regard it not about blame, but perhaps shame, for those struggling.

• Contradictory views continuously clash whether it's about viable vaccines or whether antibody therapeutics is really where money should have been funded more significantly earlier (and now belatedly it comes along).

• There are only a couple companies out there with 'scalable' therapeutics, and that's why we have focused on Sorrento (if they get FDA approvals).

• In that regard Friday's Defense Department 'contract' via DARPA was the trigger to ignite a move in SRNE ahead of an institutional presentation.

• A DARPA division focused on 'chemical and biological defense' suggests the Pentagon knows more about how well these approaches work as well as how important 'treatment' and prophylactics are for our military forces.

• Coming ahead of pending FDA actions, this suggests the Defense Dept. knows more than any of us trying to analyse the stock, and takes it very seriously, since it is unusual to see the DOD moving ahead of the FDA.

• Again more behind the scenes than we know, but 'countermeasures' to a biological attack being the core of the DOD focus tells you a lot as well as revives speculation (not directly relevant) as to the 'design' of COVID.

• Sorrento (SRNE) at this point seems to be the only MAB (monoclonal antibody) of a type that could be 'scaled' sufficiently to protect hundreds of thousands of troops and civilians economically and rapidly, unlike vaccines.

• Though a few will try to say they are a variation on vaccines, that's not the case, as they can be protective and also treat 'already infected' patients, a role that the current vaccine candidates don't equivalently provide.

• Sorrento needs approvals of tests or IND's, long anticipated, meanwhile with nothing yet peer-reviewed or FDA approved as far as the COVID drugs or tests, it remains controversial and speculative, but rising.

• We may be in the early stages of a major economic cyclical recovery, but the big stocks have generally discounted lots of this, which is partially why we focus on both growth and speculation that isn't extremely expensive.

• Just because Indexes are at high levels doesn't mean overt bearishness will pay off, although yes there will be crosscurrents in December.

• Although we've had so many swings already that tax considerations may not be as prominent a consideration as they were a couple months back.

• Treasury yields are not going up that much so for now monetary policy is not an inhibitor, although stocks can certainly swing.

• Friction in OPEC+ is part of what's afoot, and might relate geopolitically to the concern about possible hostile actions increasing not merely related to Iran's so-called reprisal threats about the nuclear scientist's death,

• The OPEC stress at tomorrow's meeting might reflect the Saudi-Iranian tensions increasingly, and that (rather than the Iran-Israel animosity) may well be at the core of this, also Russia wants Oil prices high and thus Oil production cuts to remain in-place, this may come to a head this week.

• Zoom Video (ZM) made their numbers and got hit heavily after the Bell, sort of a good example of how the current 'work/stay home' stocks are pricey or overworked so to say, with regard to price (selling news isn't surprising so when a stock drops with good forward guidance realize it's profit-taking).

• Coronavirus cases continue soaring across the Country, and this is totally unsettling, and should be.

• The WHO contradicted itself again, saying lock-downs are not a solution, and then saying countries should not allow people to 'congregate',

• The foregoing is the dilemma of our time, how to bridge this gap to better medications and vaccines, versus not tanking the economy further, and of course most especially as relates to small business and poorer folks that at the start of this often perceived themselves as middle class workers.

• Savings rates 'now' are very high, but obviously many people didn't live at all with recommended cushions of savings, and those that did are running out if they are still not working, and there's no new help from Washington.

(Two Sorrento graphics are from Sorrento's institutional presentation today.)

In-sum: the market on Monday absorbed minor selling in decent fashion, and a handful of stocks were pretty firm. The availability of vaccines is a big topic, rather than the efficacy, about which we're less confident given not just varied opinions, but hearing the number of people that actually were in trials that got COVID, as contrasting the placebo crowds. (To wit this is sort of saying that the placebo crowd generally did not get COVID either, but people vaccinated were likely behaving in sensible fashion anyway in their daily lives.. hard to know.)

One troubling aspect has been the side effects and lingering after effects that a sizeable percentage of patients have experienced. So yes I think the overall economy will improve in 2021 (Spring and beyond especially), but there may well be a shakeout related to the pandemic itself 'not' improving on a schedule correlated to rolling-out the vaccines. And that is a major unfactored prospect.

That is also where developing 'treatments' like Sorrento's is very very urgent, so that people won't remain extremely reticent to 'mingle and travel', which I'm thinking they still will be (especially responsible ones) if there's not available a non-vaccine sort of therapeutic, whether it's Sorrento's or another (there are a couple others, but again so far nothing scalable as what Sorrento claims).

As I've contended for months, this market is interested in stability, and tended to prefer a Trump victory. Contrary to those who think otherwise, Republicans to a substantial degree were frustrated at some of the missteps, perhaps even related to non-COVID issues. Perhaps the states where Trump lost by just a bit but the Congressional Republicans won, reflected this fatigue some had felt. I mentioned this last week, and it's still the case.

Bottom-line: what matters now is opening the economy, ending lock-downs, and putting vaccines in proper perspective versus antibody therapeutics.

Clearly I'm 'not' fear-mongering, but an enthusiast for weeks and weeks about what I call the 'Roaring 20's' (not a Great Depression) though some perceive this as an endorsement of vaccines. Not really, although I hope they actually work. The market is excited that VP Pence talks about early distribution. But we've known mid-December as a target for that for some time now.