E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Aug. 3

  • Many people are freaked by hearing of limited vaccine efficacy; and are not convinced 'more of the same' (3rd shot of existing vaccine) is really the solution; so they limit socializing and activities voluntarily; we contend the approach shouldn't be so many shots; but availability of monoclonal antibodies (pills or nose drops/sprays or injection, not prolonged IV infusion);
  • Going forward, people who had bad reactions to vaccines or just refuse it; will also be interested in monoclonal antibodies that mess little with an immune system response; but work on directly killing the virus it seems;
  • This enhances prospects for not just Regeneron; but clearly Sorrento, if they can (finally) evidence efficacy on their monoclonal antibodies (that is the drops and other delivery methods such as direct injection);
  • A weekend tirade by Mexico's President 'and' Health Minister rallied hard against big pharmaceutical companies wanting to give every man, woman and child vaccine; and repeat vaccinating them every year; then said we need 'treatments' for this, not big-pharma-enriching vaccines;
  • On the flip side, 'solid earnings' really aren't relevant; while the slowing in growth due to Covid / Delta resurgence, keeps the 10-year very low; and that's more a factor helping sustain the S&P; more so than any earnings;
  • The corollary is that once we have effective treatment / low-dose pills and monoclonal antibodies, the S&P might set back a bit more aggressively;
  • Hearing of the 'cruises' and heavy spenders in Las Vegas doesn't comfort me; but rather suggests high community transmission (spreader) events of course; while hoping most people engaging in all that are vaccinated;
  • Israeli testing 'in Greece' of a nasally-inhaled CD-24 anti-Covid drug has good outcomes in a limited number of patients; with more tests coming; it is meaningful as science (finally) moves away from sole vaccine reliance;
  • Much freaking-out about China; which is now largely shutdown due to a new round of Covid attacks; as to their 'crackdown' on economic growth; I am not buying that entirely; I sort of grasp the anti-monopoly aspects as well as the pressure to not have private online companies compete with banks, which must have the comrades up in arms at the thought (they're many capitalists in China; but the ruling communists are fighting back);
  • Hence the view of China turning away from companies is a misnomer; it's more likely just preservation of the Chinese Communist Party apparatus; China knows they have to turn to globalization to be stronger, and have a few challenges to overcome (including natural disaster poor responses);
  • In the long run the ideal would be: they want to limit corporate power; but enhance competition and keep online businesses out of the realm close to banking or digital currencies, which also undermine central banks; and stop the aggressive designs on Taiwan and the South China Sea islands.
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Disclosure: This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which is distributed nightly and typically includes one or two videos as well as charts and analyses. You can subscribe ...

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