E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Apr. 27

American optimism about the economy's direction is now slowly improving, a year after our targeted S&P turnaround in late March 2020. For the first time since, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index has displayed a positive score. Its important for longer-term growth and stocks too, if it is 'The Roaring 20's'.

There are conditions or caveats for sure: dramatic economic stimulus actions taken in the past year offset much of economic damage from the coronavirus. This also set-the-stage for 2021 to be a strong year of economic growth, very much to the dismay of concerns related to longer-term debt encumbrance.

Sure, growth predictions rest on assumptions the coronavirus will be largely under control this year, at least here in the USA, if not abroad (heaven forbid anyone looks at India, where they thought they were somehow dodging worst case alternatives, then the medical house of cards collapsed on them...at one point France and the UK were in dire straits too, but meandered through it).

So, as more Americans get vaccinated, the spread of COVID-19 ideally keeps to a minimal level (as we see in over half the states now), more businesses in almost every city will be relieved, public places re-open and do accommodate larger numbers of customers. Wearing masks outdoors will be recognized as very unnecessary, and the MIT study will be sobering about social distancing (in-itself enabling arguments for denser restaurant seating).

Such developments 'could' unleash a surge of pent-up consumer demand as the public has largely avoided traveling or attending events with large crowds for over a year. And that can validate some equity gains already seen. What's needed of course is 'broadening out' of participation as more sectors emerge from the funk and restrictive era. What started as 'COVID fatigue' morphs into a realistic (sort of cautious) embrace of more 'normalcy' the world longs for.

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