Financial and physical storms are gathering. Wall Street has avoided all significant squalls for some time; whereas the Nation has been buffeted too frequently by major cyclones this year. Now both are rumbling-around again with all kinds of rationalizations which border on upside cheer-leading at or near the highs. Tonight we'll focus on technology a bit; with a few charts that reflect Fed prospects as well. The overall market view remains one of S&P sort of flirting with exhaustion and becoming poised for a short-term turn. 

Given how the world has changed in recent years, we thought it appropriate to note today is the 6th Anniversary since Siri premiered on the iPhone (of course Apple (AAPL) had bought the company offering it earlier in the 'App' Store).

The launch of the voice-command era continues to be refined; as today we saw next-generation products from Google (GOOGL), and perhaps notably, the FCC only today approved the iPhone X (the advanced model); which is just three weeks prior to pre-orders commencing (if not approved couldn't be sold). It's probably a good time to show outlined features that distinguish it from many others (including now-basic iPhone 8's).

While some analysts ponder future devices, security, or the App-Generation (timely that Apple is supporting Ohio State's first 'digital' curriculum for IOS design; which begins in 2018 and focuses from day one by providing all new Freshmen with an iPad Pro and digital pencil); again evidence that Apple is by no means holding back from the enterprise and design realm ahead.

That matters to the markets, both with respect to marketing challenges that exist in China (we've discussed the absence of key 'Apps' that minimize the sales and appeal of iPhones in that market) and the slow development of a transformational project with IBM. So even if IBM doesn't impress with their numbers soon (and they probably won't); this is in-context of what I outlined for over a year already, regarding IBM moving more toward an Apple as well as App orientation, not only because of the mobility (tablet) aspect, but also I suspect as IBM is well aware of security issues that must be surmounted. I believe that the world is so transfixed on cyber-security, that it minimized the aspect of moving away from Flash, away from Java, or away from Windows if one really expects to make progress over time. IBM and Apple grasp this.

That doesn't mean either stock breaks higher here; but it does mean serious growth and continuity in the future; along with challenges for Microsoft and a slew of software systems that have issues with code (including Apple to less degrees now) or simple vulnerability to executable files and the like.

Technology for the moment isn't facing dramatic news; and when iPhone X goes on sale in less than a month; it will of course quickly see delivery delay like never before. And neither Apple nor IBM will see business increase now of any substantial nature. I mention this because the market's recent moves really are groping for some 'logic' for the move; while we think it's merely the extension we expected; and which now likely moves into an exhaustion or a sort of out-of-gas phase, whether it's only short-term or not.

As for the devices; almost all have good photography now; and almost all of the premium models are closing-in on the $1000. price level for top phones (most feature differentiation's are actually in the camera modes not cellular features). The victim today is GoPro (GPRO); since Google had a variation that's just about half the price. On the phone side, you'll see a competitive landscape into the holiday season for everything 'but' the iPhone X, because it won't be hardly available, thus no need to compete on 'price'. If you believe strongly in one of the AI systems (voice command devices for whole-house gadgets) you'll tend in that direction, regardless of price. That's what keeps Apple out there in-front; but there is a challenge because arguably Google or Amazon have a larger overall share or conceivably more household presence aside from computers. That's exactly why Amazon (AMZN) etc. are pointing that way; as it is pretty clear they can't compete on the basic computer/phone ecosystem.

If Apple under-performs (and it should for now), and Intel (INTC) slips a bit (yes that is in opposition to all the technicians calling for higher at the moment), you'll not just see a surprise against so-called strong seasonality, but rather what is not being reported to the mainstream; Apple is working hard with British ARMS (in-line with their license) to start making their own processor better than the already-desktop-level chips used in iPhones and iPads. The point's simple: Intel, and Broadcom (BRCM) or Qualcom (QCOM) or even Nvidia (NVDA), can all lose parts of their core businesses if Apple starts manufacturer (even if contracted) at least a large portion of their chips and processors essentially in-house. That may be a feature for 2019 and beyond; but the market will anticipate that.

Bottom line: We don't dispute the long-term optimism for technology; heck no. However short-term many are stretched; news is generally known; while the risks at the margin for the short-term are less appreciated. To wit,  as the late great Chairman of Intel Andy Grove wrote: 'Only The Paranoid Survive'.

That is increasingly true in the fast-as-heck cellular field that many contend is stagnant, but actually is moving so fast that mobile becomes computing in most categories for the majority of people globally. We think IBM realized it in time, and is moving to the new paradigm; but not on a dime. That's why it moved away from large deals a bit and into an annuity business model, but as I wrote back then, it would take a few years or so for this to be realized in terms of earnings; but was essential for the behemoth to adjust to the times.

Now it's likely the chip processors that will feel the heat of 'change', and why they are even moving into wireless-charging (surprisingly slowly since it's a couple years since I first saw Qualcomm's floor-mat charger under a Rolls; with a sexy model rolling under it to prove it wouldn't electrocute her). Just a couple weeks ago I wrote  that the new iPhone will not have 'Band 71' which is what T-Mobile (TMUS) now rolled out to penetrate walls. Only one LG premium model phone has it; and maybe the new Google (but it's not yet clear). The point is that there wasn't enough lead-time for now; at the same time a company like Apple might have moved faster if that cellular chip was made 'in-house'. This is an important topic generally not heard and I find it interesting that other cellular carriers haven't competitively used this as a reason why iPhone buyers should head to them. Let's see what's next in the cellular wars that are destined to occur in the months just ahead.

In sum: Very little has happened in markets; beyond what we outlined likely.

The stock market is struggling at or near all-time highs. Yes it does look lots like the 'exhaustion phase' I've speculated coming after further upside early in October. However all it takes is rebounds in tech or Oil to perk it up just a bit; although I suspect the risk now is for anyone brave enough to buy into a market where most everyone is long and committed to the bullish side of the ledger. Combine high leverage and many are too complacent, or too awed at the same time by the market's resilience, to recognize growing risk.