Market Briefing For Thursday, Oct.22

There's no debating it - the market, or mostly the S&P, remains 'heavy', tries to bounce on revolving news about Stimulus, and then returns to jitters that to a sense might be tied to newly-generated questions of election interference by both Iran and Russia, that the FBI is looking into. Regardless, there's no change in our general defensive view of the S&P's precarious posturing.

Executive summary:

  • Stimulus remains the pivot-wheel for intraday trading, while Republicans failed to Approve the smaller package that had been brought to a vote.
  • Pelosi tells reporters this evening that she remains optimistic about the larger bill, and that conversations with Mnuchin were constructive.
  • Politics remain at the forefront, with the next and last Debate Thursday, and one can only wish the focus would be actual proposals, I suspect Biden will want to talk about COVID and Trump about 'no new taxes'.
  • There's talk of President Trump proposing a Middle Class 'tax cut' next year, I suppose tomorrow would be a good time outline that to us all.
  • The hyper-charged threats against candidates are worrisome regarding the aftermath of the Elections, though we'd hope sanity will prevail.
  • One battle may be calming, the EU & UK agreed to reopen Brexit talks, to what extend and to what end remains unclear.
  • After the Bell, earnings reports continue: Chipoltle (CMG) beat numbers, digital sales (half of revenue) tripled, and yet the shares dropped sharply.
  • Tesla (TSLA) made numbers and rallied, and analysts keep addressing Tesla's perceived leadership in autonomous driving, we suspect that overlooks a couple of key competitive systems that are coming-online soon.
  • Among 'autonomous' competitors will be Luminar and Velodyne, and we believe LightPath (LPTH) provides visible & infrared lenses to at least one.

COVID & Sorrento reflections:

  • Sorrento (SRNE) broke into the 7's (suspected), and bounced, the issues remain a significant portfolio of COVID (and other) solutions (pain, cancer and so on but those are longer-term prospects, whereas our interest is COVID.
  • The key inhibitors to price action remains 'transparency' and 'execution', near-term prospects hinge on testing (at least one Trial started), on FDA approvals (pending for awhile in at least one case), or an EUA.
  • Personal hunch: urgency by Sorrento to progress with rapid trials relates to conserving funds unless OWS or BARDA funds become available.
  • While impressed with potential sectors, this is time-sensitive as well as not worthy if an approval comes after COVID is in the rear-view mirror, so again lack of 'sense of urgency' is troubling me, so we tread lightly.
  • That leaves SRNE trying to construct a basing pattern in this range, with resistance (if successful) being around the 50-DMA in the 9's, clearly the clock's ticking, optimism requires timely favorable developments.
  • Volunteer in Brazilian clinical trials reported died on vaccine developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) / Oxford Univ., clinical trials in Britain, India, etc. ongoing.
  • Data is unclear as to whether she died from other issues, or pre-2nd shot.
  • 'Warp Speed' chief says AstraZeneca (AZN) and J&J (JNJ) trials can restart (unclear if public statement was before or after the unfortunate participant death).
  • Perhaps slow development of therapeutics by Sorrento may prove safer, but time is of the essence, really for all the players in the COVID 'space'.
  • Longer term investors recognize volatility in biotechs often prevails for years, and we're not (yet) focused on this stock as a long-term play, we may retain interest beyond near-term speculation only 'if' they execute.
  • Speaking of urgency, where is the FDA?, even Regeneron (REGN) has not gotten an EUA after having giving a huge-dose antibody cocktail to the President of the United States, even though it's 4 grams.
  • Regeneron's drug remains experimental, won't be available for months for regular people, so perhaps the FDA fears significant demand if approved.
  • We'll not debate if the Federal response to COVID overall, will go down in history as one of the largest American public-health fails ever.
  • Global politics surrounding COVID continuing mushrooming, it's not only the US with conflicting views about opening, in Israel an Ultra-Orthodox Rabbi (who recovered from COVID himself at age 93) commanded all the schools be reopened, contrary to Government containment orders.
  • And in the U.K., it's Manchester than continues to defy social guidelines.
  • Meanwhile lower mortality outcomes debated, but clearly welcomed.

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