Barbarians are positioning - it seems at times, just outside of the market's gates, but there's not 'yet' a catalyst to let them stream through unhindered.

It is a more cautious time, based on pandemic, on politics, on expensive stock leadership, while the more-mundane stocks aren't particularly pricey at all. But of course that presumes we emerge from the bunker-lifestyle quickly enough, otherwise suppressed earnings persist and even broaden to other sectors.

Optimistically that won't happen (the prolongation of COVID), but listening to a gathering in Singapore, they're warning that air travel by 'business' (far more crucial than leisure travel) has no chance of recovering for 2-3 years. I'm not convinced it will recover fully even then, because one thing learned from this era is that more business can be conducted remotely than ever recognized. It may also be that executives enjoyed the travel (whether escapes from their office routines, or even wives and husbands occasionally -just teasing-), or the perks given by a lot of companies on trips.

This topic lightly came-up yesterday when I visited with the LightPath (LPTH) leaders and mentioned the upcoming Annual Meeting. Well it will be 'virtual' of course, and online has no travel, parking or venue room rental costs either, much less a sort of open bar some firms have done at meetings or presentations. Not to be a spoilsport, but we noted not just how much money will be saved, but also a larger number of shareholders are likely to participate given online ease.

I sort of suspect yesterday's overly-promoted, and then under-delivered as far as breaking news (and it was what it should be), Sorrento (SRNE) R&D Presentation, sort of shows what happens when a gathering has too many attendees just listening, many of whom didn't appreciate how thorough the 'solution outlines' were, and a better understanding of where pending 'trials' or IND's are at.

Sorrento, whether by inefficiencies or just overloaded, or perhaps via a slow FDA process, took their sweet time getting Summertime promises unrolling, it is still lacking in delivering most. But at least STI-5656 was approved today for Phase 2, both in the United States and also intended for Brazil (presumably it is awaiting the regulatory agency in Brazil to authorize the go-ahead). That's a drug for small-cell lung cancer licensed from China, and as being repurposed, doesn't require Phase 1 testing here. Since initially trials will be in about 400 rapidly-recruited patients 'in hospital', with the USA treatment arms apparently including less severe patients than the first groups in Brazil (which is suffering horribly), we should see how well it performs, primarily address ARDS. So 'if', as widely speculated STI-1499 is head for trial in Brazil (it should be) this isn't that, with STI-1499 apparently still expected to commence trial at Temple U.

Also of COVID note, Heat Biologics (HTBX) perked-up a bit, yesterday receiving a key Patent noted, and today initial coverage from B. Riley (a brokerage), target 4. I believe that's a reasonable target 'if' they progress, get a partner, or funding, and actually consider that a low number should they actually score success if coming to eventual trial, or partnering (in my thinking) with an antibody study.

The U.S. has new COVID clusters, as does Europe, and it's not good. No idea why some politicians or media types 'pretend' there's not new surges, which of course sadly sees more COVID admissions to hospitals. Governor Cuomo today said the're threatened by a full-blown second wave, so again as warned a couple months ago, the school opening generallly wasn't handled as well as it could have been. (I had talked about small groups of kids sorted-out so they take classes together, maybe 6, and have a total circle of no more than 20 for social associations, making 'contact tracing' efficient if a kid gets the virus.)

Of course they didn't do that broadly and now here comes the Fall influenza season. Market connection? Sure. Just correlate a failure to get 'stimulus' for (especially) poor people and very small businesses passing Congress (so far, with Mnuchin sour, impacting the markets and then Kudlow is trotted out to try relieving the decline by saying talks aren't 'necessarily' over as of yet). So put it together and there's more to ponder than bank earnings or the latest polls.

When you consider than not just Nick Saben, but now the 'first son' was sick, as Barron Trump has now tested negative (the poor kid must be going nuts in The White House COVID-incubator environment, though I hear they flew him to Florida which makes sense, get him out of there for a couple weeks). I am not second-guessing the President, but possible resilience after Regeneron's (REGN) antibody of course does not translate to protection for his Son or anyone else, even if it's promoting (for no particularly justifiable reason) lots of people being focused a bit too much on the idea of just doing whatever they feel like. Yes, I heard the President saying Barron is 14 and barely knew he had COVID if he did. However I'd not be dismissive. Reminds me of 'Chicken Pox'. People may get it when young, think their done with it, then 50 years later Shingles shows up (painfully). Finally there's a synthetic 2nd generation vaccine for the older population, but the first one was problematic, and before that there were none really, so people suffered from something they 'though' was left in childhood.

The President is stated as 'not' contagious, he will do a Town Hall tomorrow at the same time as Joe Biden does one, and in-theory they could have debated live in the same venue tomorrow. But too late for that it seems. It's refreshing, in a sense, to see large crowds that want to support the President, but then it occurs that they mingle, they may be carriers, and what happens next week?

I know it became political, but it shouldn't be. In France, COVID surged anew to the point that starting now, Paris has a 9 pm curfew, which President Macron had tried to delay even though other cities had already been locked-down. In Italy, the largest daily cases since the Chinese virus seeded Milan's Fashion Week, which was really the genus of how SARS-Cov-2 was circulated. (AAPL)

Executive summary:

• Quite candidly, any carefree stance is understandable given COVID fatigue but in those areas seeing resurgence, a question might be asked whether encouragement (implied or direct) not to wear masks / social distance and so on, is essentially contagious, thus at the heart of rising case levels.

• Same thing in Europe, and even in China they're just had a resurgence in at least two big cities, so it's not a question of politicizing, but of common sense, hence frustration with some leaders and epidemiologists, with the abhorrence of 'faux experts' advising leaders (herd immunity advocates).

• While I don't believe there's a conspiracy to engage in 'natural selection', or to cull-out the elderly and immunocompromised from society, if scripts were written about how to handle a pandemic properly, well.. what is this.

• In states like Utah, Colorado and now Iowa, people going for testing come back at about 20% positive now (fast rise), here in Florida it's around 5%, and California now is improving slightly, but they've been overwhelmed with everything else and even there worries about another surge exists.

• The point is some of this was avoidable, and being 'tired' and frustrated is no excuse for not coping, and being concerned for our fellow citizens, and it all has jobs, economic, political, financial and stock market implications.

• Concern for the market transmits as noted, and I don't see how the S&P (SPX) holds steadfast much longer, with this backdrop, even if we get 'stimulus', because its arrival would coming a little slow and a little late, not to forget the Election is already starting, so the entire mix is problematic for stocks.

• If you combine frustration, fatigue, more surges, lack of funding, along the lines we've discussed, but add a post-Election sell-off (outlined based on a tendency to sell big FANG-type stocks early more likely 'if' Biden wins), well caution is the better part of valor in this market, to say the least.

• Not a great deal of financial news today (either that or I'm still recovering from a long prior evening and I am a bit ), but COVID defines how it goes.

• Just the turmoil in air travel and tourism touches the surface of what has only briefly seen relief, and now threatens to become a sequel, perhaps a report of sharply rising airline bookings for Thanksgiving should forewarn of problems ahead, even though of course we'd all like to be carefree.

• I do have a sense of 'deja vu', recalling my warnings in early February after our first concerns in January, nobody wants to go thru it again, but you can't 'will' it away with delusional denial, and thousands daily attest, at least the death rates have been comparatively limited, probably more so because of better medical experience than any curable regimen.

• Against this backdrop we need far better success than seen in vaccines, better therapeutic antibodies (we don't even have an active Sorrento trial yet, and that's hard to understand, though STI-1499 will be forthcoming),

• Meanwhile what is out there to treat with now is not particularly effective, though the medical personnel know better how to handle the disease (for their sake alone the Nation should feel guilty for not complying better with health precautions, which can work 'with' reopening, if balanced well), as a result of being 'carefree', some hospitals are again under pressure.

• Yesterday LightPath's proper precautions were evident, everyone knows how work and some relaxation can coexist with the virus, but coexistence does not mean abandonment of precautions, and so that's ultimately also a market risk, beyond anyone's views of taking the virus seriously or not.

In sum: Apologies if I'm just exhausted, or a bit frustrated with both the COVID unnecessary resurgence, politics that don't focus on issues that matter, or to a degree pondering what happens after the Elections, not just to markets, but to society while politicians dicker and researchers ponder 'why' vaccines are not as easy to produce or having expected efficacy, as initially proclaimed.