Human COVID-19 tolls - going into the holidays are projected to be horrific. Concurrently, the stock market remains honed-in on bridging-the-gap to what it (and most people) envision as a 'vaccine panacea era' of course.

However there is actually little assurance that the forthcoming initial vaccines will deliver on 'promises' the population or stock market now 'assume' (even if they get a decent proportion of people willing to be inoculated) forthcoming.

Remember: 'hope' is not a strategy, but having a fallback treatment would be. Of course we're thinking about alternatives I mention daily, but just today I've been bombarded by more warnings about the vaccines longevity, necessity for booster shots, unknown lingering long-haul after-affects (not unheard of in vaccines), or even if there's some plot to use vaccines as population control. I of course dismiss the last part as anti-vax insanity, which we've heard before.

However, I do question the 90%+ efficacy claims, merely because participants in trials were not necessarily exposed to COVID at all, unless they inadvertently came across the situation. It might be presumed intelligent volunteers were of course not the no-mask/hoax crowd, and therefore were responsible, careful, and hence less like to be exposed. Now there have been earlier very effective vaccines, measles and the Salk Polio vaccine come to mind. Or the newer as well as synthetic Shingles vaccine, but those actually are exceptions.

Those of course weren't messing with human DNA, in the manner these new ones do, so that probably underlies speculative residual concern, that is being dampened by a repetitive clarion call to 'believe' all the science will be perfect first. Actually we hope so, but they don't know that much about the vaccine in real life, or prolonged duration, and certainly not about longer-term. I am in an age category that probably will be eligible for it almost right away, but unsure, until I learn more at least. Of course I'd prefer doing nothing but having at my side pills or monoclonal antibody nasal sprays, if it became necessary. That's even a longer-term proposition, but maybe not by much.

I mention this, along with more shutdown warnings, before noting the market's modest retreat today, which changes little, and as we've been skeptical of the rally extensions anyway. So there's no big surprise at all. But an S&P surprise if or when vaccines arrive, and as people keep getting infected thereafter, will greatly eclipse market worries as they exist now. That's also why we need the alternative approach to ramp-up with MAB's. So, for humanity and markets, it is a sincere 'hope' Moderna (MRNA) & Pfizer (PFE) vaccines don't disappoint 'baited-breath' citizens. To that end, the New York and other warnings today are reminders.

Personally I all-along have preferred the promise of Monoclonal Antibodies, if from a major pharma working on these like Merck (MRK) or Lilly (LLY), or from Sorrento (SRNE). I have discussed Sorrento the last two days before today's nice advance which may relate to its important portfolio of solutions, to unannounced progress for funding or on trials, but aside that it was a technical breakout. Now a very tiny consolidation and another move higher would be the ideal expectation.

Executive summary:

• Tuesday's earlier rally efforts gave-way to over-optimism, and New York's warnings, all of which is just before we get pre-holiday travel (that should be mostly curtailed, but really isn't, hence promised post-holiday illness.

• Overconfidence was felt to prevails about early roles of vaccines to fight spread of COVID, which is why we not only prefer to focus on therapeutic antibody treatments, but part of why the post-COVID stock play is mixed.

• To-wit the S&P was ahead of itself, but broad market's not overbought to the degree the most-liquid (high-volume) super-cap stocks were or are.

• Again, we think the biggest boost would be approval of a 'Pill' or 'nasal spray' COVID-killer (whether from Sorrento, Merck or anyone working in that direction), and those are not expected (at best) until early next year, at the same time basic (core technology) could emerge late this year.

• I do believe there has been too much of extreme views, either the bears who tend to be seriously negative, or the super-bulls with outlandish S&P targets (that are feasible down the road, but not on this phase of action).

• Today JP Morgan (JPM) talked of 'Trillions of Dollars' waiting to enter stocks as we get past COVID, while Goldman Sachs (GS) (the other day talking about S&P 4600 as a goal, which I thought ludicrous near-term), came forth with a warning of massive near year end selling (perhaps different analysts?).

• The resurgence of Bitcoin (BITCOMP) is very speculative, and it's not fight capital out of China, given their relative manufacturing health, so this time it might be flight from excess Dollars rather than being used in-lieu of Gold hedges (GLD).

• As you'll see in the S&P chart (next section) we're consolidating within an 'overshoot' (above technical pattern structure) which benefited from lots of vaccine talk, and perhaps too much hype about the efficacy of those.

• Otherwise nothing has change around this market (value above growth), fights in politics, but diminishing a bit it seems, and plenty of uncertainty.

• Again, NY Governor Cuomo's warning (specifically) of 'astronomical' positivity rates in New York COVID cases, was a wake-up 'for now' call.

Bottom-line: incremental information, especially on vaccine optimism, was to a great degree priced-in. Optimistic sentiment, normal technical retractions as they all move the big-caps in lockstep, and it's not terribly surprising.