Market Briefing For Thursday, May 28

Lofting into orbit - might be easier for the S&P than for Space-X just now. If you think back, that was an analogy I used back in 2016, where it would be 'to the Moon' for the S&P 'if' Trump won, whether you liked him or not... you simply had to be 'in' the market because business liked lower taxes etc., capital repatriation, and for lots of folks, taking on China with trade.  

Now it's just a bit different, although I've outlined how the Senior Index could make all time highs ahead of elections 'if' a couple of things happen. Those relate to medical progress (the most important with treatment need greater than a promising vaccine at the moment), and 'slower forbearance requests' in the financial arena.  

As to Space-X, that's likely either Saturday or Sunday now that the launch was scrubbed due to the same severe storm that passed over me earlier. I believe Elon will stick around and both Trump & Pence will be at the Cape for the main event this weekend. And by the way the 'Dragon Capsule will orbit and dock with the ISS, the S&P will likely have this ride but not dock into any sort of permanent orbit, but we continue 'not' to expect the S&P to return all the way to Earth, and that's an optimistic scenario I've held to since the 'Inger Bottom' (as I termed the March 22-23 max-fear panic low).  

As I suggested earlier even the modest improvement in oil (OIL) demand (China is part of that) hints at survival of lots of smaller oil companies or others that are depending on banking finance (usually funded against crude production payments), so those oils may avoid defaults, hence for now at last avoid of course risk of become totally nonperforming loans. That helps Banks too. (NYA)

Combine the foregoing and you have 'components' beyond the FANG types of super-caps, which is what you needed to extend the forecast advance off the March lows further. (As an aside I got a kick out of seeing what became a flat-out shouting match between Kernan and Sorken on CNBC early Wednesday and actually I wish that's what we had on all media instead of being agenda driven. Today Sauter, a former President of CBS News, bemoaned what has happened to news media, and thinks the biased talking heads should simply acknowledge they or their networks have a bias or agenda, so citizens know they're not watching 'real' news channels.) It's all sad, as I have contended for so many years that actual news and editorial comment be separated. (COMP)

Executive Summary:  

  • President Trump will attack Twitter & Facebook tomorrow via an Executive Order, details of which are not yet available.
  • He will probably challenge the 'checking of the fact checkers' and unfortunately this is all too political, even though he has a point as regards suppression of conservative views (on campuses too).
  • But how to address it wisely remains the question and most 'true' conservatives are not far right, as the polls have clearly noted.
  • Far left is the CCP, as the Chinese now threaten not only Taiwan, but want to steamroll their laws into Hong Kong and have moved thousands of troops to the Kashmir area bordering India.
  • President Trump offered to mediate this China/India crisis.
  • Secretary Pompeo's statement of support for the protestors quite squarely puts the U.S. on Hong Kong's side and their last chance is almost desperate, which would be a total revolt from China.
  • For sure Beijing will accuse the US of meddling, that story should be out before NY opens, but I'm unsure if it will impact our markets.
  • The Fed's Beige (Tan) book showed less regional pressure than Wall Street economists expected and that's due to technology and the funding that made this survivalist mode possible.
  • There are more new drugs and vaccines being postulated and we are still confident that for some segments of society, one will be available late this year.
  • Oh let's welcome Dr. Anthony Fauci to our bias for a vaccine this year, a faith I've had based on the early testing of new modalities in terms of vaccine design, both here, in Israel, and in the U.K..
  • The stock market seems to have it's wind, but some caution as obvious bargain time is behind by 2 months and it's stretching, hence more vulnerable to anything that comes along that's destabilizing. 

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