If January was 'The Inger Top'; will this be 'The Inger Bottom' ? Despite our projected series of S&P technical breaks, and frantic swings, there are several highlights I want to communicate today, including the first time since turning bearish in January. These are my attitude shifts this year, thus far:

1) This market reversed after Ackman's 'peak-fear-cheering' (a little noticed tidbit about hitting cash-machines got my attention, as not a thing any big money manager would do; hence motive suspicion)

2)  In addition, a bit more exposure to the depressing warning from Imperial College that I shared yesterday, of 18 months quarantine (nope that is not in the cards, not even remotely, given treatment on the way), although discussion of 'ring-fencing' London (heavily hit) spreads great fear as well as the virus, while people evacuate, as happened in Wuhan, and even earlier this week in New York City. If I'm saying the worst is behind (for many but not all sectors), consider I am doing the opposite of 'fear-cheering'.

3) This is not to say there's not potential downside to go, but like if so, it's after a potentially significant rebound' perhaps starting within hours, and failure of VIX (VIX) to emulate the S&P (SPY) action hints at that.

4) Yesterday's emergency ECB meeting announced a 750 billion Euro bond-buying program, which is helping the Futures for now, while there is no doubt Europe is suffering as the virus continues to take its toll.

5) Most important: I suspect a Presidential announcement along the lines of a trial 'therapeutic treatment' or 'drug cocktail', that will not prevent or cure the coronavirus in all instances, but will relieve lung infection or inflammation sufficiently to forestall or ideally recover a criticality situation, resulting in much more than palliative care and thus fewer patients moving from flu-like to respirator status, and if so the GM offer to build more respirators won't be necessary. Any such 'cocktail' (not Gin & Tonic) should ideally diminish this forthcoming crush on ICU's and thus take the 'edge off' the panic that washout sessions like Wednesday's, and genuinely justified fears for sure generated, whether in markets or overall society.

6) I suspect the President remarking that he has 'not' invoked the Defense Procurement law that he signed today, might be because he is hopeful (nobody knows for sure yet) that what he announces tomorrow will speed relief (I really don't care if he claims credit or not; you know) .. relief to both the fear of the virus and fear itself.

7) I cannot promise the bottom of this overall crisis is upon us, but I will say the fears being promulgated now, with our foreknowledge of the negative data, ill-preparedness and exponential rising numbers (due to naiveté, then time bought to get ready well before current data), certainly had us warning early-on, and I hope just as urgently (more so and for people not just markets) that we've got the scent of a bottom coming, even if it's early and surely before 'peak virus'.

8) However, I'll not be surprised - even 'if or as' we go lower - that this now evolves to be part of the bottoming 'process', which can swing and take time (I can't say we don't eventually see S&P 1800, but doesn't have to be that glum 'if' things fall-in-line right).  

In summary: I, as someone believing reasonably calling the topping process two or more months ago, would rather be known ahead, as a flexible realist a bit early, that also may reasonably be known as calling the start of a bottoming process. Hah. 'The Inger Bottom".

Panicky peddling pummeled prices persistently - again at the opening Wednesday. Pershing's Bill Ackman knocked-sense into any who haven't heard my words over the last two or more months about 'risks' and Wuflu, including unfortunately the ignored idea about sealing Washington State, from at least air travel, many weeks ago. Or did he purposely just fan the flames of panic excessively, irrespective of being concerned (I've been so concerned since January, but would go nuts about it now).   

  (Relief I want to see may be hours away; if Trump is on his game.)  

Besides advocating the obvious (like businesses conserving all the capital they can, cutting dividends if needed, avoiding buybacks that I thought ludicrous for more than a year as part of the 'artificial levitation' of course you know I described it as), this is essentially time to evaluate the other side of the coin. But realistically it can get worse overall before this gets better, again barring a sudden announcement of a successful drug (oh funny thing, I have a feeling that's forthcoming maybe within hours).

Daily action - the series of liquidations are dominated by the forced, or as I tend to say, 'compelled liquidations' across many spectrum's. We are now urging not following the temptations to raise money into weakness, as too many signs of a climactic capitulation are present. We just need a few 'speculative' treatment ideas to gel into market-moving events, and at the same time injecting more hope into those already suffering WuFlu.    

Being forced to 'de-lever' is not pleasant but is what's happening to many money managers, largely because of how levered-up there were with the ridiculous pushing of already-overpriced stocks higher late last year and early this year; something we knew was a priced-for-perfection charade.  

I've tried to warn (even before the actual S&P high) how superficial all of that was, because at no time did present or forward earnings justify levels the S&P was at; and it's not hindsight like some say now; but current and foresight assessments about risk.  

With that said, it's part of why this 'crashed' more than might otherwise be the case, and why 'percentages off early February highs' are irrelevant as that was not a 'real' market, but an eeked-out series of unsustainable or stretched highs that gave an illusion of strength that wasn't broadly there even then, back in January. And we said so every day.  

Fine. So now what. You navigate carefully, do not be tempted to assume the alternating (Newton's Law) swings are really part of a final bottoming process, although at this point I can see how this will now be part of that 'process'. There will be 'individual' sectors bottoming on a rotating basis. It's tough to say we're there now; even though I'm starting to see value.  

One example might be oils (OIL), which are insanely collapsing, as rationales at this point center around storage costs exceeding price levels. This of course is a temporary phenomenon, because a few things can happen, so I'd like to note that before I forget to mention it, as Oil matters overall.    

For instance: a) Russia might get with Saudi Arabia and make a deal on production levels; recognizing that the Saudis started this oil war to hold penetration levels in Europe, that Russia was beginning to capture; b) President Trump makes one phone call to Riyadh and threatens to stop all weapons shipments and support for their war in Yemen unless they do stop flooding the world with cheap oil (Saudi's extraction cost is about $3 a barrel, a quarter of what it is in Russia and maybe 15% of U.S. costs); and while at it, the President must say that starting their oil war at a time of global pandemic is essentially an attack on financial systems broadly; and finally c) in the U.S. the capping temporarily of most wells and lower than normal drilling activity this Spring and Summer, will ultimately result in an exhaustion of excess inventory, but that's a prolonged procedure.  

Did you notice I often correlate oil within the context of other factors tending to influence markets? It matters, the Saudi's have upset the balance and created a (Petrodollar and more) risky situation even aside the pandemic and they must know it by now. Getting oil to stabilize and firm, actually is more important than lots of other actions, aside of course fighting the virus as well as other financial stabilization efforts, many of which also tie to oil.  

Finally, the spending bill passage helps, but not everyone. And shutdown of all things in 'all' places is an overreaction now that we 'already' know of drugs that can ease the suffering, limit the disease, and should result in a prevalence of calmer heads.. perhaps sooner rather than later. (And yes, to have restaurants and so on somewhat open matters on where, and it might be that .. for instance .. Florida is going too far closing beaches as it is known the the virus hates heat, water, sunlight and is exercise to an extend.) Too much mass hysteria helps noone, especially the elderly.

All that mixed together, and  a generational buying opportunity, as I've said for several weeks, will come of this collapse. It's why I made a point about how much better entries will be for millennial's or anyone with liquidity, which was and is key to focusing not on the Covid-19 cases we knew would increase 'as' testing reveals the 'true' levels out there. As to young investors, I'm not sure about how much residential housing will get hit, but commercial property should see significant shifts in some cities.

Today should be choppy initially, but probably face more compelled or even freaked (because of the NYSE Floor closure) selling. Before we speculate, just maybe, we get a Newton's Law rebound. But unless we get what I suspect from President Trump, it's still premature given the virus data that's going to overwhelm most logical thinking for now. If we do get it. well, it will be an increased chance to be part of .. 'The Inger Bottom'.