E Market Briefing For Thursday, June 6

The investment 'realm' holds many challenging alternatives that most of today's analysts and pundits are debating, or hold divergent opinions about. A lot of chatter, and yet 'none' know reliably, how the evolving and pending contingencies impacting almost every area will evolve.

That's why you hear 'defaults' to either 'all is fixed with a trade deal' (that's in fact not what would happen, which is why cash raising on rallies was really a justified approach on the Spring distributional rallies); or the disputes fail to get resolved, and we find (for instance) China hell-bent to predominate in Asia (they are) and thus the view we're better off 'not' to make a deal.  

Most markets 'do' want a deal; and a deal actually helps China stabilize and move forward to advance their agenda faster (notice they completed illegal militarization of several islands in the South China Sea that they had agreed not to militarize in previous meetings, but now it's a fait-accompli).  

There is global deflation ongoing; as the race to the bottom in rates persists. I generally agree with the President's trade policies; and hope he restrains a modicum of the confrontational nature of discussions; where it's appropriate (in the case of Mexico the message is conveyed; now work it out) and not if it's not. Acting in the best interests of America remains foremost; while we're also navigating the high-wire act of maintaining relationships with allies.  

 

 

Most analysts debate greater growth, focus on superficial issues like jobs (at this point that's moot as really obscured the sluggish economy for a year or so); or (more enlightening) talk about low liquidity or a potential credit crisis.  

In stocks the spreads are wider; and the concentration remains leveraged or aggressive trader play in the narrow universe of stocks that move. In a way the volatility reflects the limited liquidity in the market. Moving markets fairly rapidly (sizable moves down or up within hours) is a liquidity crisis too.  

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