Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 30

Perseverance characterizes this stock market, without much 'harvesting' so far, of gains achieved in the most recent upside phase. 

As I've contended for months; this market is interested in stability; and tended to prefer a Trump victory. Contrary to those who think otherwise, Republicans to a substantial degree were frustrated at some of the missteps; perhaps even related to non-Covid issues. Perhaps the states where Trump lost by just a bit but the Congressional Republicans won; reflected this fatigue some had felt.

So, with respect to the 'hail Mary' efforts to reverse the Election (technically as is still alive), while it's unlikely, from a stock market perspective, actually does not matter as much as some think. The market didn't crash with Trump's win in 2016, but soared as we were projecting it would. And here it rallied on Joe Bid's presumed victory; even though some thought it would tank. We're not in a tanking mode, and not going to be near-term; though big-cap value's behind generally (not entirely; some oil, telephony and industrials are still not juiced).

Covid fatigue has permeated most aspects of public life globally. Not just in the USA either. It became essentially politicized between those arguing for stronger controls (perhaps the word 'control' should not be underestimated in a couple ways); which almost always are the same contenting vaccine safety.

We are not epidemiologists or infectious disease experts; but we recognized I would say very early-on in late January and early February how market risks were tremendously heightened at the time; and then on March 23rd (that's as I called it that day "The Inger Bottom") a time of max-fear. Since then, though we have talked a lot (too much at times) about the topic; you'll notice I've said it was 'less' of an impact on the markets, even as it became more politicized.

What matters now is opening the economy; ending lock-downs (and not panic by certain officials -often hypocritical- who think responsibility is for others but not for themselves); and putting vaccines in proper perspective. It's because I am 'not' fear-mongering, but an enthusiast for weeks and weeks about what I call the 'Roaring 20's' (not a Great Depression) that some perceived this as an endorsement of vaccines. Not really; although I hope they actually work.

In essence, it is not that I have a particular fear of Covid (hard to characterize) but realizing even as many still squabble about what's the best approach, or if they'll take the vaccine vs. antibodies (or have both available).

The point is: even though mortality levels have thankfully improved; lingering after-affects in most patients, prove Covid recovery's no picnic. Best of all: not to get sick in the first place, which is why many of us disengaged a lot. Is that fear; or is that common-sense.. to minimize interactions until we know more.

 

In sum: the market is consolidating after breaking-out 'slightly', but still within the overshoot zone around our targeted immediate S&P goals.

Less fear is the expectation with fingers crossed that Government focus less on questionable first-generation vaccines, and more on antibody therapeutics.

This matters to markets since any shortcoming of vaccines (as suspected will become evident) needs to be offset by rapid arrival of low-dose therapeutics. We're not there yet; but high-dose versions are just starting to 'ship' today. Of course they are expensive so far; part of why Government focuses on vaccine production, which per-dose is cheap.

Ultimately much of the world will use vaccines; and in the U.S. therapeutics in my view have the best prospect to put Covid-19 in the rear-view mirror. That's the type of medication that doesn't promote fear and lock-downs; opens-up the economy and relieves anxiety people have about basically everything.

So we give thanksgiving for the promise that's not quite here yet; of ending in rapid fashion the fear-driven suppression of society, by arrival of antivirals on a cost-effective, and medically effective, ramp-up during 2021.

Bottom line: the market's 'indecision' pattern in what I call the S&P overshoot zone indeed resolved to the upside. 

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