Distortions and contradictions defy not just precedent, but several data points too. Of course it's too soon to sound a global economic all-clear, and the alternating market swings simply compound the arguments of resilience versus what remains nothing definitive about a China deal prospect. And of course the Europeans are still concerned about the signals coming there.

The Mueller Report is out. The Department of Justice has notified the key lawmakers that Attorney General William Barr received the report. Barr has told congressional leaders he is "reviewing the report and anticipate that he may be in a position to advise of the special counsel's principal conclusions as soon as this weekend." Following a review, a debate will ensue between Barr, the White House and lawmakers over how much of the report will be made public. Barr has purportedly told Congressional leaders that 'Mueller did NOT overreach his mandate', in preparation of the Report. 

A few points to contemplate this weekend:

• Robert Mueller finished the Russia probe; and has delivered it to the Attorney General; conclusions and market impacts (if any) pending;

• It's entirely unclear (since the Yield Curve Inversion was known a day earlier); whether Friday's decline somehow reflected advance leakage or knowledge the Report would be presented 'after Friday's Close';

• Global synchronized contraction prevails, as it has for a year in our view and not pointing newly to a recession and many contend;

• Financial stocks remain defensive and are not suggesting their time is soon at hand; even though the prolonged global economy eventually is expected to revive (not sooner than later this year);

• If growth is vigorous enough, the Fed and ECB will have to adjust more than just sit on its hands; and eventually that will firm the Yield Curve;

• The 'Yield Curve Inversion' was the news yesterday; though discussion was limited until today; perhaps because stocks were up yesterday, and down today;

• Reality is that the backdrop is the same aside some geopolitical moves in Asia involving North & South Korea (the North withdrew negotiators, related to restoring industrial cooperation with the South; to the chagrin of Seoul; and made some new absurd demands for US withdrawals);

• Countering this President Trump actually ordered the Treasury Dept. to 'not implement' new sanctions intended to commence this month (sort of a reflection of his desire to down down any new tensions with the North);

• U.S. Marines practiced island-hopping techniques, by occupying a tiny unpopulated island off of Guam; that's a bit of a message to China;

• The main worry about the Fed is that they are 'pushing on a string' and that's why I called it a '2nd derivative' issue, which the Fed can't easily respond too (the ECB tactics were a good example of how negative or below zero interest rates are not a solution);

• Hence fiscal stimulus here by virtue of staying with an Inversion, won't have the impact it did years ago; and the Fed doesn't have maneuvering room of any significance here;

• Yes we've allowed for the S&P to move slightly higher; but the parallel or channel lines I noted last night sort of shows the probably limits of rallies other than a China deal, and that would likely prove to be temporary for the near-term;

• China has significant default and other risks; and that's going to inhibit a broad-benefit to their economy; although certainly things are more risky if we don't get a deal;

• The inflationary hopes relate to export demand from China and more; as well as (sadly) lost agricultural yields due to Midwest US flooding;

• Today's resignation by one lead trade negotiator (right hand man to Larry Kudlow) is curious; although claimed not to relate to negotiations;

• Market volatility (up Thursday and down Friday on the same yield curve theme) is confounding to bulls & bears; as it's uncertainty and includes an enigma about how things will go with China even 'after a deal';

• The domestic political scene is also one of potentially pending impacts; but again no precise timing on how that goes exists;

• Materials, Energy and Technology were all weak sectors Friday;

• Again too much focus on the big-cap momentum stocks, with dominant issues like Nike breaking, sort of reminds one of the potential risks when such 'grand dames' of Wall Street get hit.

In sum: there are big growth opportunities down-the-road; but probably in a slew of stocks that have quietly worked on growing their businesses, more than the focus on pushing profits forward by virtue of buyback or tactics that are not related directly to success in business operations. Moving into time of the year when a 'quiet period' prevails denying pre-earnings buybacks is a concern for some of those companies trying to push their shares higher. I don't suggest such stocks 'can't move' up a bit; but that they're no bargains.

Indonesia seeks to cancel Boeing 737 Max orders (49 of them I believe); so Boeing is sending representatives to Garuda Air next week to negotiate the possible substitution of other Boeing aircraft. This may become a trend as a stigma 'perhaps' persists even after the 'fix' is provided to all airlines. Part of the issue for the airline operators is an awareness of flight dynamics that are a good bit different (those big forward-mounted engines). So unlike previous incidences of updates (like the 787 lithium battery issue), this one relates to the basic design of the 737 Max model and that may thus linger longer. The shift to 'regular' 737's or even 787's would keep the revenue for Boeing and thus not be quite so draconian as outright cancellation of business, which is not really feasible for carriers, given limited options for now.  

Bottom line: confirmation of global slowdown may be cited; but from our standpoint that's not news; as has been ongoing for about a year. That does leave open the prospect of a recession ending about as it's proclaiming by after-the-fact views. However central banks don't have much maneuvering room; so oddly enough they need this view (of nearly a trough) to prevail as the 'Modern Monetary Theory' approach we previously discussed, really will not readily work to save markets (or economy) as its proponents contend.