E Market Briefing For Monday, March 18

A bias for 'charging Bulls'  into Quarterly Expiration was delivered; while interesting data surfaces showing the 'cowering' investors (amazing selling in November and December into the hole; and continuing even thru January and February) .. the cowering investors (fund managers?) finally capitulated to the 'buy-side', trying to 'corral' some sort of performance for the year.  

So, we got higher highs looked for this week into Expiration; but while there is an appearance (led by Nasdaq) of a market moving into higher ground, as I suspect it will; we should allow some cooling-off, perhaps ahead of the upcoming FOMC Meeting; then a resumption. Volume dried up on this rally, which often is a harbinger of either concern or a brief pause coming-up.    

 

Aside plays on words, and the bias for some pullback after this Expiration; it has been a great week; and an entire Quarter during which (so far) we rode the rally and while not cheering it; believe it would move above S&P 2800; as well as on the back of expected progress on the China Trade Deal front. And though there will be 'relief sighs', one should not presume that instantly better profitability occurs on the global (or Asian) front, just because we get a deal done. And keep an eye on Europe; German car deals still pending. 

Of course there are wildcards; including Oil prices (although hopefully now Trump realizes he should stop talking them down or threatening opening all our reserves, because there is no emergency.. referring to crude.. and there is an underpinning including exports, with Venezuela crippled by stupidity in oil field management, and even the electrical (intermittent now) blackouts. (I will add that it's so treacherous to fly in there now; that American Airlines is suspending service. It's not political but related to Air Traffic Control not being reliable based on glitches or outages experienced on 'approach'. American was the last 'normal' carrier flying there; that leaves Cubana.)  

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