E Market Briefing For Monday, March 11

A wide spectrum of concerns persists in the marketplace, whether it's a shaky stock market, or renewed jitters recognized in the broad economy. In fact that's true here, in Europe, and certainly China; while Japan actually is a bit more stable in terms of economic stability. This week I mentioned the old 'bearish alternative' might have to be dragged out 'if' everything were to collapse (especially China); however that's not our preferred pattern. Here is the worst-case scenario I spoke of and which nobody should wish to see. 

  

If anything, ahead of Brexit (the next real challenge other than concluding a China Trade Deal), market players 'pretend' they were shocked by a lower than consensus Jobs report; when in reality the economic slippage (macro comparisons have been shown) began 'before' the market's expected peak, at least for the short-term, just as it repeated nudged above S&P 2800.  

The point is that many money managers (though few will candidly say so) really need a meaningful setback, since they generally were too defensive coming off of December's low; and need a chance to get in on a correction. 

  

Of course that presupposes that the market will thereafter zoom higher as the year evolves, and on that I'd suggest they not be overconfident. This still is a 'transition year' for technology, and without it (and strong Oil), you'll find it difficult to get the market significantly higher solely in defensive sectors.  

  Now, that's not to say a number of stocks won't do very well; and perhaps in the 3rd or 4th Quarter of 2019, we'll see better-than-seasonally-typical S&P action. That could lead-into efforts for a stronger 2020 (ahead of Elections); but there are so many variables (including efforts to dislodge this President), that it would be unrealistic to make presumptions about 'late year' action as of yet. Visibility about that may become clearer down-the-road a bit.

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