Perverse reactions to 'good news' is of course a primary influence being debated after the better-than-consensus jobs numbers reported. So, sure, it is an irony that 'superficially' better employment (good news at first blush) is bad news for the market, as it mitigates pressures on the Fed to cut rates.  

The perverse aspect is that anyone really believes cutting rates here would, of course, be a meaningful elixir to lift stocks more so than what we've seen elsewhere (like Europe, with ridiculous negative rates now often prevailing). In fact, this is the 'Pushing On A String' approach that I've critiqued, and of course the President wants. Fed nominee Shelton proclaim avoids candid observation about a rate cut not being required, because she wants a path to easy Nomination approved I would surmise; and that's fine if almost all do miss the boat a bit about the market's Friday reaction to the Jobs report.

The Report showed the highest increase not so much in Manufacturing or in Professional Services (the strongest sector) but in 'multiple jobs held'. That's a bit contradictory to the 'first blush reaction', because it infers more workers have to maintain more than a single job to bring-in sufficient income levels.  

The Nation, in my view, continues evolving in a shallow recession; nuances of which have prevailed for over a year now; almost for a year and a half. It only relates to the stock market because it has helped keep the Fed passive to a degree, and combined with buybacks and selectively better behavior in a lot of stocks that corrected on a rotational basis, held everything together.  

At the same time, ongoing tension with China over trade negotiations hasn't been a positive for the economy; but in the perverse logic of this world, it's a 'weight' on the economy and business planning; so also keeps the U.S. Fed at bay. Again bad news is good news, and good news is bad news. We are likely headed to a 2020 (barring war of course) where good news perhaps is going to be viewed as good news; as we evolve thru the finish of contraction (as it's finally acknowledged), and not dependent on hell-bent pressures that are trying to push the Fed into pushing the string so far that it makes a rope. 

'Rope' is not a hyperbole in a sense; because the outcome can be softening for the Dollar; it can create a negative money policy beyond expansion; and one that views the world thru a misguided lens and actually contribute more to suppressed economic activity (bordering on deflation, though they'll never call it more than dis-inflation).

Perhaps Sunday's Deutsche Bank urgent Board Meeting will be revealing. As to a bit of chatter suggesting a 'bank-run', I don't really expect that; and while it is hard to say whether risk's priced-in, we have warned about DB for a couple years now-and-then; and have no position. But lately it's actually firmed just a bit; so perhaps some of the risk of 'expected firings' and so forth are now priced-in. So if the news of more firing after Friday's Investment Group head resigning hit; perhaps that's a trough after such a long decline. We'll see; I'm just mentioning it as that was a key Friday story I think largely overlooked.

In-sum: the perverse pressures to lower already-low interest rates further is a political, not economic, objective by 'certain parties' and economists. Such policy moves (not initiatives) are appropriate at times. This isn't such a time.

Hence, we might get a lower rate (and brief reflexive rebounds after FOMC meets late this month); but that risks 'becoming 'careful what you wish for' regarding pressure for such a cut, when common sense (and experiences in Europe) affirm that this can be counterproductive at this point, or also deter some of the foreign capital that continues flowing to the United States. Yes a softer currency improves pricing abroad slightly; but this is minimal relative to currency flow and a need to maintain our rates at 'relatively' firm levels.

Bottom line: We have anticipated the upside S&P pattern exhausting during the early-to-mid July time-frame. However, the idea of good news being bad news is not the reason for our concern about later Summer rotational dips to the Senior Index; although the multiple-jobs aspect suggests the economy is not really so robust as the numbers superficially implied.  

Also, inventories are building as firms were concerned about tariff increases so that's (in retail) part of why you see massive Holiday weekend sales now.