(The overall rise in cases and disease is not over. It is fueled by both the holiday, carefree semi-reopen attitudes; even protests or rallies. So given incubation time estimates, this past week and next could well see this particular surge peaking.)
  

Complacency on 'earnings' - complimented by reports of 'improved' outcomes, or reduced mortality, from the already wide-used Gilead (GILD) Remdesivir drug (now there's an aerosolized version that's entered testing), allowed the S&P to forge higher-yet, amid continued 'technician' amazement (they call this jammed overbought and it is not, as far as the broad market, having digested prior gains via consolidation, basically throughout June, masked by the big-cap strength); as 'super-caps,' for sure, are continuing to probe extraordinarily challenging valuation levels.

Lots of topics we've addressed this week persist in rolling around; ranging from the ongoing S&P trading range; the bifurcation that has eased the Index below the overbought level as the internal correction dominated; to now the slightly-political, and of course very important economically, mitigation efforts going-on around America. The 'school' issue is hotly debated too. 

Now there are emotionally-charged debates about our leadership; Federal, state and local levels; which I'm primarily criticizing all-around for lack of coordination. I don't want this to get to a point where the military has to coordinate or override the entire response, as opposed to just logistics of distribution. However this will need to get done; and yes although the pace of cases may ease later this month 'in theory'; it won't if you still have this helter-skelter uncoordinated guidelines. Of course a state like New York can be more open (and cautious) than Florida; and at the same time a 'uniform' opening of schools without local consideration is just nuts; though we all want to see kids going to school, but only safely.

Finally, on this, I am quite curious about what happened with the 'temporary fix', or solution, promised by injections of neutralizing antibodies; pending a real drug or vaccine. I have mentioned that antibodies will have limited duration; but so too does the annual flu shot; though it often provides some protection.

Executive summary:

• Strength persists, and now the key may be moving Banks a bit higher, given the broad expectation of poor numbers and mediocre guidance; however as I've noted before, most will make huge profits from 'PPP and stimulus fees' they'll collect, an issue that for some reason, hasn't garnered attraction;

• I'm not bullish on Financials; just nothing how low they've been; so with all the negative thoughts about non-performing or even defaulting loans (worthy considerations); they might be in a position to generate a bounce; and there I have eyes mostly on JP Morgan and maybe Morgan Stanley; though again it probably is not necessary to play these; but that's a prospect;

• Concurrently some of this might happen keeping equities firm enough to stay in the 'trading range' for S&P, ahead of Friday's monthly options Expiration;

• After Friday's close, President Trump 'imposed' (6 month delay) 25% tariffs on certain French goods, which may or may not take effect depending on the response by Paris toward collecting the 'digital' tariffs (which they view as just taxes on services selling to French citizens);

• I do not view this as a 'trade war' with France; not do I believe we're in a new one with China (same status as has been); while chatter about decoupling is just that; nothing likely to really occur between the Powers barring accident;
• Accident could be any jittery commander that gets excited by the U.S. Navy's totally appropriate 'freedom of the seas' float-plan in the South China Sea; if such a PLA Officer gets obsessed about their phony sovereignty claims;
• Some scientists want clinical trials to begin immediately of 'antibody shots' as an interim solution; arguing antibody shots offer a plausible method for preventing infections (please see my further comments on this above);
• I hate to say it; but the big-pharmas may fear that once a vaccine arrives; no 'demand' will exist for these shots; but smaller companies we've noted 'may' fill the vacuum here, if they move fast, and 'IF' the FDA's not a roadblock; 
• Speaking of Covid-related developments; multiple conflicts continue within states and cities about rollbacks of openings which ushered-in new cases.

• Yes the world is piling into very expensive stocks; and while we're unwilling (and have been; glad of it) to short the 'super-caps', a shakeout looms out there; but with so many calling for it, for the moment it's been forestalled;

Intricate maneuvers are 'all the rage' at the moment. That's whether it's fiscal stimulus debates and Congressional leaders spar from different perspectives on how best to 'bridge the gap' in the shrinking economy during the coronavirus; or the complex platforms offered by one side, which would alter the path moving in the direction of U.S. self-sufficiency, while proclaiming desires for more jobs. This year, Covid 19 demonstrated how vulnerably-exposed the United States is to international trade route disruptions.

It's a tough topic, because both parties are infuriated with China now; but aside any other criticisms, and both are advocating something I've called for over the last generation; and that is an American manufacturing renaissance.

Now, China has to deal with this, regardless of whatever actions the United States takes in the new 'trading reality. And, given China's deceptive manuevers involving the Wuhan coronavirus at the outset, no one in the world will trust fully China ruled by the CCP going forward.

In-sum: most scenarios right now are 'moves in-place'; whether related to S&P, super-cap domination; smaller-caps consolidating and in some cases preparing to improve; to the stand-off with China; to domestic politics; to sadly Covid-19.  

The coming week is key primarily with regard to earnings (and big banks); and if Oil can firm even though it reached our short-term goal; that would help sustain all this, which remains (for the S&P) a correction looking for an 'opportunity' but also aware we have July Expiration coming right up too.