E Market Briefing For Monday, Jan. 14

There is a ramping of the domestic political situation too; aside the 'Wall' or the Shutdown. There is an interesting New York Times article yesterday that begs the question about the FBI investigation opened after Comey's firing. I will not opine on the issue; just saying this can reinforce Trump ultimately or not; and in some circumstances can trigger more of a market disruption this year than most believe. Generally they ignored this during 2018 and made an assumption the market doesn't care. Perhaps it cared then and in 2019. 

Of course cynics generally also did not believe the economy was sluggish or market topping early in 2018. While hard to dissect (as well as Saturday's stream of 'tweets' from the President), with the whole thing beyond levels of propriety perhaps on multiple sides (of the issues), there's little new in the NYT story to confirm Trump was colluding with Russia; as best I could tell over a cup of coffee this morning. So was the New York Times story about Trump, or about FBI malfeasance? I don't know, but it's a weekend furor.    


Back to the market. Do remember there are firms that suggest 'buying' into strength if the S&P gets above certain levels. I happen to disagree; and will suggest it's more likely that a thrust higher from near-current conditions that is sufficient to cause them to issue 'all-clear' indications, is just about when some selling of trading (as opposed to investing) positions from just before Christmas could be exited.  

This 'congestion area' referred to (roughly S&P 2600-2650) is a term I used to describe an area we thought throughout the Fall would break hard after a couple 'Hail Mary' revival attempts; and it certainly did. Our target was more or less 2300-2400 S&P; and turns-out we nailed that; not just the preceding peak back in late September / early October.  

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