Resolutions are pending - as 'known unknowns' perpetuate uncertainty; and that's as anticipated. There's no reason to have looked for much other than a 'continuation pattern', as S&P forges on (with alternating swings) toward that rising-bottoms trendline I emphasized a couple days ago showing again).

So 'technically' it might be that the 'bullish alternative would be dramatic slide, with a washout and compelled selling (followed by automatic rally). The more drawn-out pattern would be what we're seeing; an uncertain 'fits & starts' but working lower overall market; and in this case it is 'overall' not segmented.

It's probably at-risk of 'other shoes dropping too'; although there's enough on everyone's plate to make investors feel flat-footed here. But this generally has a tone that is not different than forewarned; just a chronically frustrating time, which is exacerbated by an obvious Fed-Powell 'spin' trying to make a policy fit the conditions; when conditions have already changed, again from Covid.

It's probably at risk of 'other shoes dropping too'; although there's enough on everyone's plate to make investors feel flat-footed here. But this generally has a tone that is not different than forewarned: just a chronically frustrating time, which is exacerbated by an obvious Fed-Powell 'spin' trying to make a policy fit the conditions; when conditions have already changed, again from Covid.

But until it is known, or the Pfizer drug is approved (how about right away Dr. FDA please), and presuming it actually works 'as advertised' (which they are since Government ordered millions of doses already) there is uncertainty that totally impacts perceptions of growth, margins, inflation vs. stagflation; and/or whether the Fed can 'really' move forward with their obvious intentions (that of course are late to arrive; not incorrect).

In sum: the pattern has evolved for quite some time and is not resolved or yet near resolution; barring a selling climax of the orthodox variety. Stay tuned.

As to mega-caps; as mentioned Thursday evening; the plunge of Docusign (DOCU) creamed Ark Innovations, and that (Woods-run) fund impacted many others. It is symptomatic of the mega-cap crunch, which occurred along with further erosion in smaller caps. And that part may relate more to the Fed shift that was tardy and untimely (but knew they were initiating tapering) as well as tax-selling which this year was and is unusual; impacting winners and losers.

It's a continuation pattern looked for anyway this time of year; and I was upset with the Fed because they twisted their policy intentions to fit a changed cycle of Covid (Omicron); with nonsense about how the pandemic is inflationary. It is or can be; but not in the stage of resurgence; but more as it subsides. This past year had the most inflation while we 'thought' the Nation was emerging a bit; not while it was sliding deeper early in 2020.

All year I have warned about the extended mega-caps and the insider selling, and the risks; but it was so hard to get the market to break; so we didn't short overtly. But about a month ago I hoisted the 'red flags' warning; and that's all I will do these days; with investors deciding how they want to approach things. I personally suggested selling 'some' but not all of 'core' big-cap holders and to a degree nibbling (toe in water style) into a few smaller cap speculations. I for sure realize nothing is working at the moment; nor should it during a panic.

In a sense it's not 'yet' panic enough, for a technical reversal that could stick; but the purges can continue to present the same relative value attraction for the brave and patient, with some diversification among speculations. Given a serious 'crash' (this is not that, at least not classically) then the mega-caps of course can be interesting again; but otherwise don't seem enticing. There's a reason I pointed out the CEO's of Microsoft and Tesla significantly selling in recent weeks; and they weren't alone; just examples. (Even Bezos and Cook were insider sellers this year; everyone trying to avoid higher taxes.) The old say of not making decisions based on taxes might not apply at all-time-highs not so long ago; and with billions, not millions, at stake for those guys.

In the new week as eyes focus on the Fed meeting and/or hourly washout; a lot of folks will fret whether the market of course has to 'seize-up' even more before they jawbone their way out of the 'spin' that we've already mentioned every day since Powell began that. If it's all 'rubbish' now; that's not exactly a stock-specific situation; and that's why the video describes it as a 'liquidation'.

Normally when the small value stocks (tax selling victims too) start folding as the big stocks crater; people want to believe that's the end of the carnage; not the start. Again I have nibbled (near the day's and yearly lows) a bit; while by no means enthused about the prospects yet. Hoping that 'if' washout (or any exhaustion the bumps into approval of the Pfizer pills), that quickly leads right to the well-advertised year-end rally prospects; and if so the average entry (of dipping toes in) will look pretty good. If it's a raid that closes-down the bordello then that's another story; we'll have to monitor how heavy the Fed is coming; and more significantly in the eyes of some, how heavily a toll from Omicron.

The problem I have with this approach isn't significant at all; if Omicron does not impede our future (and I don't just mean stocks). Even modest rate hikes are not an impediment for business or growth if life around us permits a sort of return to normalcy. But it would impeded the way buy-backs were going.

And frankly 'normal life' is part of this. If the Pfizer (or other) drug (or nature) mitigates Omicron's virulence, then we will get a good rebound, regardless of the Fed's immediate stance, and with a great relief that all these preparations 'for life' were not entirely premature (airlines, hotels, cruises etc. etc.). For the moment everyone or most every business is pondering similar uncertainty.

Not to overlook; selling by insiders in big-caps was among the highest ever; as I've reflected on that repeatedly. Tesla, Microsoft, Google, all of them had large selling to avoid possibly higher capital gains taxes; big money for them. For a couple years I contended buybacks were largely 'enhanced executive compensation' and not just to please other shareholders. But a win-win for of course both. In this case that pressure also is alleviated as we enter 2022.

Bottom line: these two weeks are continuation of our 'red-flag' warnings; as the unusual (probably unprecedented.. patterns progress... sort of a reflection on Mark Twain's 'history doesn't repeat but rhymes').

The combination of normal selling; tax loss selling; tax gain selling (this time); the Fed Powell Put timed right at a critical spot; and also the Omicron variant; that's too much for a concentrated market driven by algorithms (everyone sort of pretends active management dominates but they all see the same charts; so the art is interpretation not just viewing in linear fashion). Hopefully this just purges, rather than fully crashes (though it feels like the latter, I realize that of course) and we at least get a reprieve going from forthcoming lows into early 2022; and then we'll circle around and take another overall look..

Enjoy the holiday season with good judgement, as far as mingling about.