Market Briefing For Monday, Dec. 16

Holiday palpitations - anticipated a lot of news on Friday the 13th. We got everything and more; with some still pending. Most ironically, you've witnessed the Chinese 'trade panel' news conference and the Downing Street remarks by PM Johnson about the UK victory; and the House as they voted on moving-on with (likely failing efforts at) Impeachment.. all of these events occurred right at 10 am. Few focused on the last item.  

  

  

A member in the UK emails me to say: "Britain's in business again." Indeed; there will be adjustments; but the trend has been evident, and while lots of polls were 'close', we believed the Conservatives would in this case carry it, and for the right reasons. As for the idea that Corbyn or others would help the NHS (actually it's Boris who proposes doing a lot more for healthcare); perhaps. But watch things get done now.

I'm recalling Malcolm Forbes, who I think said this (or something similar) about liberals who speak of how the heavily repressed get helped only if 'they' dominate politics: 'when the means meet the desire' to help. So perhaps that's when very wealthy often become charitable and more compassionate; or at least some of that should be the case; too often it is lost by greed and poor appropriation decisions. But really it's mostly focused on economics in Great Britain, more so than Migration; but it is about being dictated to by Brussels.  

 

  

I think it was Charles Dickens who would focus more on public program sustenance for the masses; but while 'sharing' and trickle-down hasn't hit it's stride in the U.S. like it used to, it does resonate in the U.K. One more thing can be gleaned from this besides the obvious better trade in partnership with the United States. And that's the notion that 'he who controls the media, controls the minds of the people'. Although for sure Boris ran a social-media campaign, this was an upheaval crossing party lines and social classes, just to get this finally sorted. PM Johnson took a bold chance calling for this Vote, and jolly good, the won.   

While we focus on a stream of events in this day within a busy week, it should not be overlooked that the Fed is preparing to address liquidity needs of unprecedented size over the course of the next few weeks. In a summary chart, you can see what they will soon be facing. Anything other than serious liquidity injections would not be welcomed.  

 

   

Conclusion is similar: there's no catalyst to warrant committing new funds as yet; although I expected 'some' extensions, and leaned very clearly towards a China Deal coming; initially higher S&P records.  

We remain circumspect while market stresses are notably alleviated by making a 'Phase One' deal with China (superficial or not); ideally finalizing it sufficient to hold markets together for now.   

 

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