E Market Briefing For Monday, Aug. 17

Push-back time tends to appear in August's second-half as a seasonal retreat or a calm time at least; so it's not at all unusual (especially on-top of our long uptrend off the identified March capitulation 'max-fear' 'Inger Bottom' low) to be cautious now.  

  That 'push-back' is coming or already upon us in so many ways. The virus itself now is pushing back; with no substantive recovery; and that's even occurring in countries unlike us, that enforced guidelines with an iron fist almost; where outbreaks emerge.

 

   

So rocky recoveries are the best that can be hoped for. While many will comment we could reopen more schools, have all normal sports (including football) this Fall, had we managed things properly as a Nation. Well the answer is 'perhaps'. That's a clear message conveyed by countries that did arrest the virus and now it's resurgent. And now you have a lot of cheering about the just-authorized Yale saliva test; mostly as it will help sports screen an entire team; so aside lower cost is similar to others. Really though it's not just testing, but a prophylactic and/or treatment that's sorely needed.    

Executive summary:

  • S&P continues its slow grind; with debates about bullish and bearish outlooks;
  • Goldman Sachs comes out with an S&P 3600 call for 'this' year; which might be curious to many; but probably will squelch some bearishness growing yet again;
  • Incidentally Goldman, though often followed by others, often provides outlooks late in a trend; hence the idea some suggest of leaning against their forecasts;
  • We do understand 'how' the S&P can move up; as I've said for nearly 6 months; it's a broadening-out of participation, and stability in Oil and Banks (you'll not get that yet in Banks, which have been among our least preferred areas);
  • Strength persisting in Industrials, basic materials etc., requires anticipation of a real economic revival; not numbers that are 'spun' based on relativity to the nadir a few months back;
  • That real revival can occur if we get a 'phophylactic' or early-sign treatment 'Pill' for Covid; as we have outlined for many months the best way to live with all this;
  • As to Warren Buffet; I mention that in video and the embedded remark; one does not know that Berkshire is 'actually' still bullish on Gold or bearish on Banks;
  • One only sees in a Filing those portfolio holdings at 'end' 2nd Quarter; hence sufficient time to both enter (March / April) and exit (perhaps in Q3 since both Gold and Banks have been weaker more recently;
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