E Market Briefing For Monday, April 12

Tactics employed -by the Federal Reserve and Congress to offset the very real economic effects of the pandemic, were discussed with the Chairman on Wednesday with the full interview on '60 Minutes' (CBS) Sunday evening. Of course Powell says the U.S. economy is set to make a turnaround (it's already underway), with increased growth that should provide more jobs.

This is really a global phenomenon, as relates to our 'Roaring 20's' call before others embraced the term; and I suspect also relates to outflanking efforts by China to consolidate trade moves particularly in Asia. The downside is doing all this gets the Fed to a 'pushing on a string' posture on actual rate policies; a phenomenon 'in itself' that historically leads to significant trouble (but not yet).

During my prolonged (fight for life) and recovery (which is ongoing at home at last) the market generally remained bifurcated and led by big-cap stocks. Not much has changed within the general backdrop regarding monetary policies, the Congress and the rigid policies on both sides during this entire time. The S&P has managed to work higher, and I suggested something like 4150 might be a reasonable spike peak.

The contrast of Bull and Bear opinions has also not changed much for a while now. The bearish catastrophe calls almost ensure that does not happen 'yet', baring an exogenous fiasco. There are challenges out there, as the US tries to tame Iran, even as we will probably surrender some leverage to construct what this administration wants to see with Iran. Maybe not the best approach but that's what we've got. When you have the threat against Taiwan which is always simmering in the background.

Armed conflict with China really needs to be avoided; I won't say at all costs, but I will say if you want global economic vitality to really persist; it's essential. It's not a perfect world and we can challenge policy a lot, but we have to trade and invest within what exists, not how we might perceive it 'should' exist.

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